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Matonense vs Flamengo SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Matonense Logo

Matonense

0 - 1
FT
Flamengo SP Logo

Flamengo SP

Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Vinicius Molina
76'
Gabriel de Lima Alves Y.
76'
Gabriel de Lima Alves Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Matonense
15%
Draws
54%
Flamengo SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flamengo SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Flamengo SP have won more games recently than Matonense.
  • Matonense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Flamengo SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Flamengo SP, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Matonense Clean Sheet 68%
Flamengo SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matonense Flamengo SP
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 3 9
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 1.43 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Matonense
3:1
Jul 11, 2026 Paulista B
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
0:1
Aug 3, 2019 Paulista A4
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
0:5
Jul 14, 2019 Paulista A4
Flamengo SP vs Matonense
1:1
Mar 22, 2017 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matonense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Flamengo SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinicius Molina
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matonense 95 / 100
Flamengo SP 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matonense Flamengo SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matonense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Matonense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Matonense scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Flamengo SP conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Matonense VS Flamengo SP
2.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Matonense

(Home)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
Page 1 of 6

Flamengo SP

(Away)
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Flamengo SP
2 : 1
Audax-SP
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3