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Matrei vs TSV Grafenstein

Austria Austria

Karnten 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Karnten 2025/2026 game between Matrei and TSV Grafenstein finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TSV Grafenstein.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Matrei
35%
Draws
44%
TSV Grafenstein
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: TSV Grafenstein

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and TSV Grafenstein come out ahead of Matrei on wins alone.
  • TSV Grafenstein are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Matrei Clean Sheet 10%
TSV Grafenstein Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matrei TSV Grafenstein
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.28 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Karnten
Matrei vs TSV Grafenstein
2:2
May 16, 2026 Karnten
Matrei vs TSV Grafenstein
1:3
Oct 11, 2025 Karnten
TSV Grafenstein vs Matrei
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matrei 10 / 100
TSV Grafenstein 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matrei TSV Grafenstein

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TSV Grafenstein Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Matrei's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: TSV Grafenstein conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Matrei went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Matrei VS TSV Grafenstein
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Matrei

(Home)
18 Sept
Matrei
6 : 2
Seeboden
13 Sept
Launsdorf
0 : 0
Matrei
04 Sept
Matrei
1 : 3
SC Landskron
28 Aug
Matrei
2 : 2
TSV Grafenstein
21 Aug
SV Spittal
2 : 2
Matrei
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TSV Grafenstein

(Away)
18 Sept
TSV Grafenstein
6 : 2
Saint Michael Lavanttal
13 Sept
SC Landskron
1 : 4
TSV Grafenstein
04 Sept
TSV Grafenstein
4 : 1
Nussdorf
28 Aug
Matrei
2 : 2
TSV Grafenstein
23 Aug
TSV Grafenstein
1 : 0
SAK Klagenfurt
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