Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J.League Cup Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
23'
23'
Takano R.
58'
58'
Sub
Iury Castilho In: Moraes M.
Out: Iury Castilho
58'
58'
Sub
Konagaya C. In: Shimabuku K.
Out: Konagaya C.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matsumoto Yamaga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Matsumoto Yamaga haven't matched Albirex Niigata's recent run of results.
- Matsumoto Yamaga are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Albirex Niigata arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Matsumoto Yamaga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 18%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Albirex Niigata |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 17 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 29, 2026 J.League Cup
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata
1:0
Apr 9, 2025 J.League Cup
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata
0:2
Nov 7, 2021 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata
1:1
May 9, 2021 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:0
Dec 6, 2020 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Takano R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Albirex Niigata Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 67 / 100
Albirex Niigata 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Albirex Niigata
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matsumoto Yamaga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Albirex Niigata has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Matsumoto Yamaga remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Albirex Niigata
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 11 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Kagoshima United
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Kagoshima United
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 4
Albirex Niigata
(Away) 11 Oct
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1 Albirex Niigata
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2 Albirex Niigata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1 Albirex Niigata
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2 Albirex Niigata
06 Sept
Yokohama FC
5 : 0 Albirex Niigata
02 Sept
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1 : 2 Albirex Niigata
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
