Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United
Japan
J2/J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
36'
36'
Tomizawa M.
Own Goal
41'
41'
Fujieda K.
58'
58'
Oda I.
Assist: Sawazaki R.
AI Match Summary
Fukushima United in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fukushima United.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matsumoto Yamaga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Matsumoto Yamaga haven't matched Fukushima United's recent run of results.
- Matsumoto Yamaga are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 14%
Fukushima United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Fukushima United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 17 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 J2/J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United
3:4
Mar 29, 2026 J2/J3 League
Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:3
Oct 5, 2025 J3 League
Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
Jun 7, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United
1:2
Dec 1, 2024 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Fujieda K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Oda I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Fukushima United Compare
Top Goalscorer Tsuchiya K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ashibe K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 35 / 100
Fukushima United 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Fukushima United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Fukushima United conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Matsumoto Yamaga's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Matsumoto Yamaga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Fukushima United
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 25 Jul
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 0 Kofu
06 Jun
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Nara Club
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
24 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 4 Fukushima United
17 May
Iwaki
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 0 Kofu
06 Jun
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Nara Club
24 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 4 Fukushima United
10 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Fujieda MYFC
03 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Kofu
Page 1 of 3
Fukushima United
(Away) 07 Jun
Fukushima United
2 : 1 Ryukyu
01 Jun
Vanraure
0 : 1 Fukushima United
24 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 4 Fukushima United
16 May
Fukushima United
0 : 3 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
10 May
Fukushima United
4 : 2 Iwata
Page 1 of 6
01 Jun
Vanraure
0 : 1 Fukushima United
24 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 4 Fukushima United
06 May
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2 Fukushima United
29 Apr
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 3 Fukushima United
04 Apr
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
0 : 2 Fukushima United
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 37:15 | 43 |
| 2 | Blaublitz | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 23:16 | 35 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28:20 | 31 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 36:28 | 29 |
| 5 | SC Sagamihara | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 33:36 | 28 |
| 6 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 27:39 | 23 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:25 | 22 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:35 | 21 |
| 9 | Vanraure | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 24:31 | 17 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kofu | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 20:12 | 33 |
| 2 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28:22 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 39:29 | 30 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 24:23 | 30 |
| 6 | Gifu | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 23:25 | 27 |
| 7 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 33:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Iwata | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 20:25 | 25 |
| 9 | Fukushima United | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 30:43 | 18 |
| 10 | Nagano Parceiro | 18 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 17:36 | 16 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyama | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 40:26 | 38 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 24:19 | 35 |
| 3 | Tokushima | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 38:23 | 32 |
| 4 | Kochi United | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Ehime | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 26:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Kanazawa | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 20:23 | 27 |
| 7 | Nara Club | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 27:36 | 21 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 9 | Imabari | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15:21 | 20 |
| 10 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15:34 | 19 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 35:13 | 47 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 27:16 | 33 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:18 | 32 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 27:24 | 29 |
| 5 | Kumamoto | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 6 | Gainare Tottori | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 24:25 | 27 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 19:20 | 22 |
| 8 | Reilac Shiga | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 16:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Ryukyu | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 17:28 | 17 |
| 10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 17:35 | 15 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
