Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Reilac Shiga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
21'
21'
Miyabe T.
45'
45'
Nishiyama T.
46'
46'
Sub
Romero F. In: Tabei Y.
Out: Romero F.
AI Match Summary
The J3 League game between Matsumoto Yamaga and Reilac Shiga finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Reilac Shiga.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matsumoto Yamaga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Matsumoto Yamaga haven't matched Reilac Shiga's recent run of results.
- Model gives Matsumoto Yamaga a 41% chance of winning this.
- Regular J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 68%
Reilac Shiga Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Reilac Shiga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Reilac Shiga
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Miyabe T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tanaka S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Reilac Shiga Compare
Top Goalscorer Hojo S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 50 / 100
Reilac Shiga 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Reilac Shiga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matsumoto Yamaga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.
Reilac Shiga has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Matsumoto Yamaga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Reilac Shiga
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
05 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 0 FC Osaka
Page 1 of 4
Reilac Shiga
(Away) 10 Oct
Fukushima United
2 : 2 Reilac Shiga
02 Oct
Reilac Shiga
0 : 0 Kumamoto
26 Sept
Nara Club
4 : 1 Reilac Shiga
20 Sept
Reilac Shiga
3 : 0 Ryukyu
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2 Kagoshima United
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Fukushima United
2 : 2 Reilac Shiga
26 Sept
Nara Club
4 : 1 Reilac Shiga
05 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 3 Reilac Shiga
26 Aug
Gamba Osaka
2 : 0 Reilac Shiga
22 Aug
Thespakusatsu Gunma
2 : 3 Reilac Shiga
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24:10 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:12 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 7 | Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:10 | 16 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7:6 | 14 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 14 |
| 11 | Nagano Parceiro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:14 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:19 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20:25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:23 | 5 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
