Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
63'
63'
Sub
Watanabe S. In: Gunji R.
Out: Watanabe S.
64'
64'
Sub
Tanabe K. In: Ito T.
Out: Tanabe K.
64'
64'
Sub
Nakashima K. In: Nomura N.
Out: Nakashima K.
AI Match Summary
The J3 League game between Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Renofa Yamaguchi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Renofa Yamaguchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Renofa Yamaguchi come out ahead of Matsumoto Yamaga on wins alone.
- Model gives Renofa Yamaguchi a 46% chance of winning this.
- Regular J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 20%
Renofa Yamaguchi Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 15 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 25, 2026 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi
0:2
Mar 13, 2024 J.League Cup
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi
4:3
Nov 21, 2021 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi
1:1
Feb 28, 2021 J2 League
Renofa Yamaguchi vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:0
Nov 1, 2020 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Renofa Yamaguchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Gunji R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nomura N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 24 / 100
Renofa Yamaguchi 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Renofa Yamaguchi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Renofa Yamaguchi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 62% of their last 29 games.
Renofa Yamaguchi let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Matsumoto Yamaga remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Renofa Yamaguchi
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 03 Nov
Kamatamare Sanuki
1 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
31 Oct
Fukushima United
1 : 3 Matsumoto Yamaga
25 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
21 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
2 : 0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
18 Oct
Nagano Parceiro
2 : 1 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
21 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
2 : 0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
14 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
11 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Kagoshima United
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
Page 1 of 4
Renofa Yamaguchi
(Away) 03 Nov
Renofa Yamaguchi
1 : 1 Kagoshima United
31 Oct
Renofa Yamaguchi
0 : 2 Giravanz Kitakyushu
25 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
21 Oct
Ehime
2 : 1 Renofa Yamaguchi
18 Oct
Renofa Yamaguchi
2 : 0 Kochi United
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
21 Oct
Ehime
2 : 1 Renofa Yamaguchi
11 Oct
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Renofa Yamaguchi
03 Oct
Gifu
0 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
20 Sept
Kanazawa
1 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:18 | 31 |
| 2 | Nara Club | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 28:21 | 29 |
| 3 | Gifu | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28:15 | 28 |
| 4 | SC Sagamihara | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 25:15 | 28 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20:12 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25:15 | 26 |
| 7 | Ehime | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Kumamoto | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 9 | Ryukyu | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23:20 | 23 |
| 10 | Nagano Parceiro | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:20 | 23 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 27:21 | 20 |
| 12 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 21:23 | 19 |
| 13 | Tochigi SC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 14:16 | 18 |
| 14 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15:17 | 17 |
| 15 | Reilac Shiga | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19:27 | 17 |
| 16 | Fukushima United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 27:32 | 15 |
| 17 | Gainare Tottori | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:29 | 15 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16:27 | 11 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10:31 | 9 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
