Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J.League Cup Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 2-4. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Matsumoto Yamaga at 1.71 goals for, 1.29 against; Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 2.14 for, 1.1 against. Head-to-head, Matsumoto Yamaga have won 0 to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 20, 2019, ending 2:2. xG projections (0.94 - 1.75) back Sanfrecce Hiroshima to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
15%
54%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sanfrecce Hiroshima lately — more wins on the board than Matsumoto Yamaga.
- 54% — that's where the model lands on Sanfrecce Hiroshima taking it.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Sanfrecce Hiroshima here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 12%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 18 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 20, 2019 J1 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2:2
Mar 17, 2019 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
Jul 15, 2015 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Matsumoto Yamaga
6:0
Apr 22, 2015 J.League Cup
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2:4
Mar 14, 2015 J1 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 10 / 100
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Sanfrecce Hiroshima
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.
Matsumoto Yamaga has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
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03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
05 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 0 FC Osaka
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima
(Away) 07 Oct
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4 : 0 Iwaki
29 Sept
Tochigi City
0 : 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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29 Sept
Tochigi City
0 : 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
29 Aug
Gamba Osaka
0 : 0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
15 Aug
Urawa Reds
1 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
