Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs SC Sagamihara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
4'
4'
Okita S.
Assist: Tanahashi A.
20'
20'
Kaneko S.
36'
36'
Okita S.
Assist: Nakayama R.
AI Match Summary
SC Sagamihara in this J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored SC Sagamihara.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to SC Sagamihara lately — more wins on the board than Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Win probability leans Matsumoto Yamaga's way, sitting at 36%.
- Regular J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 19%
SC Sagamihara Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | SC Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 16 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs SC Sagamihara
1:3
Oct 19, 2025 J3 League
SC Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
Mar 23, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs SC Sagamihara
2:0
Aug 17, 2024 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs SC Sagamihara
3:2
Jun 22, 2024 J3 League
SC Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Kaneko S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
SC Sagamihara Compare
Top Goalscorer Okita S.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 36 / 100
SC Sagamihara 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga SC Sagamihara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Matsumoto Yamaga's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
SC Sagamihara let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
Matsumoto Yamaga went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS SC Sagamihara
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 11 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Kagoshima United
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Kagoshima United
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 4
SC Sagamihara
(Away) 09 Oct
SC Sagamihara
3 : 2 Kamatamare Sanuki
03 Oct
SC Sagamihara
1 : 0 FC Osaka
26 Sept
Renofa Yamaguchi
2 : 2 SC Sagamihara
20 Sept
SC Sagamihara
1 : 2 Giravanz Kitakyushu
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Renofa Yamaguchi
2 : 2 SC Sagamihara
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
29 Aug
Ryukyu
2 : 1 SC Sagamihara
15 Aug
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1 : 4 SC Sagamihara
23 May
Thespakusatsu Gunma
7 : 2 SC Sagamihara
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24:10 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:12 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 7 | Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:10 | 16 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7:6 | 14 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 14 |
| 11 | Nagano Parceiro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:14 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:19 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20:25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:23 | 5 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
