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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J.League Cup Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto
Matsumoto Yamaga Logo

Matsumoto Yamaga

Wed, Sep 9, 2026
4 - 3
10:00 AM
Shonan Bellmare Logo

Shonan Bellmare

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Takahashi N.
21' Event
Shibuya R.
Assist: Murakami H.
45' Event
Matsumura H.
Assist: Onose K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-3. This leg finished 4-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Matsumoto Yamaga
30%
Draws
37%
Shonan Bellmare
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shonan Bellmare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Shonan Bellmare have won more games recently than Matsumoto Yamaga.
  • Win probability leans Matsumoto Yamaga's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Shonan Bellmare arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Shonan Bellmare, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 68%
Shonan Bellmare Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Shonan Bellmare
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.67 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 J.League Cup
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare
4:3
Dec 7, 2019 J1 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare
1:1
Apr 14, 2019 J1 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:1
Aug 5, 2017 J2 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Matsumoto Yamaga
2:1
May 21, 2017 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matsumoto Yamaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Shibuya R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaneko K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Shonan Bellmare Compare

Top Goalscorer Okuno H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matsumura H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matsumoto Yamaga 68 / 100
Shonan Bellmare 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matsumoto Yamaga Shonan Bellmare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matsumoto Yamaga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Shonan Bellmare's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Matsumoto Yamaga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Matsumoto Yamaga VS Shonan Bellmare
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Matsumoto Yamaga

(Home)
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1
Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0
Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2
Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0
Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3
SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6

Shonan Bellmare

(Away)
07 Oct
FC Tokyo
4 : 0
Shonan Bellmare
03 Oct
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
26 Sept
Imabari
1 : 2
Shonan Bellmare
19 Sept
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1
Blaublitz
12 Sept
Vanraure
0 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -