Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mauritius vs Zimbabwe

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Toyota Stadium (Free State)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mauritius play Zimbabwe in the COSAFA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mauritius averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Zimbabwe averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Mauritius won 0, Zimbabwe won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 4, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.71 for Mauritius and 0.98 for Zimbabwe. This points to a Zimbabwe double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Mauritius
34%
Draws
38%
Zimbabwe
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Zimbabwe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Mauritius picked up more points recently compared to Zimbabwe.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.71 vs 0.98 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 56%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Mauritius Clean Sheet 23%
Zimbabwe Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 53%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mauritius Zimbabwe
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 5 7
Draws 9 9
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 0.57 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.17 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.33 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Mauritius vs Zimbabwe
0:0
Aug 4, 2019 African Nations Championship
Zimbabwe vs Mauritius
3:1
Jul 29, 2019 African Nations Championship
Mauritius vs Zimbabwe
0:4
May 17, 2015 COSAFA Cup
Zimbabwe vs Mauritius
2:0
Aug 4, 2013 African Nations Championship
Zimbabwe vs Mauritius
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mauritius 30 / 100
Zimbabwe 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mauritius Zimbabwe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Zimbabwe or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +23.2%
3.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mauritius attacking → ← attacking Zimbabwe

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mauritius scored in 36% of their last 28 games.

Zimbabwe let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Mauritius went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Zimbabwe lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 30
0.17 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.33 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1South Africa31112:14
2Zimbabwe31113:34
3Mozambique31112:34
4Mauritius30300:03
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Angola32106:17
2Namibia31204:15
3Lesotho31021:73
4Malawi30120:21
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Madagascar21102:14
2Tanzania21012:23
3Eswatini20112:31
4Morocco00000:00
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Comoros21101:04
2Botswana20203:32
3Zambia20113:41