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Mazagao vs SAO Jose

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Amapaense 2009
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mazagao play SAO Jose in the Campeonato Amapaense 2009. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mazagao averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. SAO Jose averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Mazagao won 3, SAO Jose won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 14, 2011 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Mazagao and 1.50 for SAO Jose. This points to a Mazagao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mazagao
22%
Draws
31%
SAO Jose
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Mazagao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Mazagao picked up more points recently compared to SAO Jose.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Mazagao Clean Sheet 16%
SAO Jose Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazagao SAO Jose
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 10
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.53 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2011 Amapaense
SAO Jose vs Mazagao
0:2
Dec 3, 2009 Amapaense
SAO Jose vs Mazagao
3:1
Nov 18, 2009 Amapaense
Mazagao vs SAO Jose
2:1
Nov 8, 2009 Amapaense
Mazagao vs SAO Jose
3:2
Jul 1, 2008 Amapaense
SAO Jose vs Mazagao
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazagao 46 / 100
SAO Jose 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazagao SAO Jose

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mazagao or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mazagao attacking → ← attacking SAO Jose

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazagao scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

SAO Jose let in goals in 81% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Mazagao went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

SAO Jose lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 46
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Santana EC532010:611
2Mazagao53207:411
3Macapa522113:108
4Ypiranga AP52217:58
5Cristal AP51138:84
6Santos AP50143:141
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Paulo AP63127:610
2SAO Jose63039:109
3Oratorio614111:117
4Trem61326:46
5Independente AP612314:175