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Mazagao vs Sao Paulo AP

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Amapaense 2008
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mazagao enters this Campeonato Amapaense 2008 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 57%. Mazagao averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. Sao Paulo AP shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Mazagao, 1 wins for Sao Paulo AP, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 20.08.11 ended in a 5:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.13 for Mazagao and 1.50 for Sao Paulo AP, suggesting the primary value lies in the Mazagao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Mazagao
18%
Draws
25%
Sao Paulo AP
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Mazagao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Mazagao picked up more points recently compared to Sao Paulo AP.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Mazagao Clean Sheet 16%
Sao Paulo AP Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazagao Sao Paulo AP
Matches Played 31 39
Wins 15 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 24
Goals Scored 1.52 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

20.08.11 Amapaense
Mazagao vs Sao Paulo AP
5:1
25.11.09 Amapaense
Sao Paulo AP vs Mazagao
2:1
13.11.09 Amapaense
Sao Paulo AP vs Mazagao
0:1
27.09.09 Amapaense
Mazagao vs Sao Paulo AP
0:0
19.04.08 Amapaense
Mazagao vs Sao Paulo AP
3:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Mazagao

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sao Paulo AP

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazagao 55 / 100
Sao Paulo AP 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazagao Sao Paulo AP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mazagao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Mazagao & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Mazagao is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Mazagao 63%
Sao Paulo AP 20%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Sao Paulo AP will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Mazagao's attacks.

Mazagao 54%
Sao Paulo AP 26%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Mazagao to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Mazagao 57%
Sao Paulo AP 25%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Mazagao vary their attacking width.

Mazagao 60%
Sao Paulo AP 24%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Sao Paulo AP, allowing Mazagao's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Mazagao 51%
Sao Paulo AP 28%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Mazagao, while Sao Paulo AP takes risks to salvage a result.

Mazagao 66%
Sao Paulo AP 29%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mazagao attacking → ← attacking Sao Paulo AP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazagao have found the net in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Sao Paulo AP have conceded at least one goal in 82% of their last 39 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Mazagao remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Sao Paulo AP suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 33
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Trem953122:918
2SAO Jose944119:916
3Mazagao934214:1313
4Cristal AP925210:811
5Ypiranga AP92529:811
6Independente AP92529:911
7Amapa924312:1610
8Sao Paulo AP923414:189
9Macapa923410:189
10Santos AP922514:258