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Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ziarek A.
24' Event
Konanau M.
29' Event
Zych P.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I game between Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and Jagiellonia II finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jagiellonia II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
20%
Draws
40%
Jagiellonia II
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki haven't matched Jagiellonia II's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%
Jagiellonia II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Jagiellonia II
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 2.24 2
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Gilant A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gladysz M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Jagiellonia II Compare

Top Goalscorer Ziarek A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Konanau M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 30 / 100
Jagiellonia II 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Jagiellonia II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jagiellonia II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Jagiellonia II let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki VS Jagiellonia II
2.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

(Home)
10 Oct
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
1 : 4
Pelikan
03 Oct
Warta Sieradz
1 : 1
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
26 Sept
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
0 : 2
Suwalki
19 Sept
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
3 : 2
Plock II
11 Sept
Widzew Lodz II
2 : 3
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
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Jagiellonia II

(Away)
10 Oct
Zabkovia Zabki
2 : 2
Jagiellonia II
25 Sept
Plock II
2 : 1
Jagiellonia II
19 Sept
Jagiellonia II
2 : 3
LKS Lodz II
12 Sept
Jagiellonia II
7 : 4
MKS Mlawa
05 Sept
LKS Lomza
1 : 2
Jagiellonia II
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KTS Weszlo 12 9 2 1 26:10 29
2 Suwalki 12 7 4 1 22:11 25
3 Pelikan 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
4 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 12 6 3 3 28:22 21
5 Plock II 12 6 3 3 24:19 21
6 Swit Mazowiecki 12 6 2 4 22:19 20
7 Olimpia Zambrow 12 5 2 5 26:27 17
8 Zabkovia Zabki 11 5 2 4 21:20 17
9 Jagiellonia II 11 4 4 3 24:22 16
10 Olimpia Elblag 12 5 1 6 18:21 16
11 Warta Sieradz 11 4 3 4 19:19 15
12 LKS Lodz II 11 4 2 5 23:21 14
13 Widzew Lodz II 11 4 2 5 21:20 14
14 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 12 4 1 7 21:26 13
15 Lidzbark Warmimski 12 3 3 6 19:24 12
16 MKS Mlawa 12 3 1 8 23:34 10
17 Troszyn 11 1 4 6 13:26 7
18 LKS Lomza 12 0 3 9 12:28 3
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)