Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mbarara City vs UPDF FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Rwamwanja stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Ssekamatte S.
79'
Kawagu C.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Mbarara City and UPDF FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UPDF FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Mbarara City
17%
Draws
13%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Mbarara City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mbarara City come out ahead of UPDF FC on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mbarara City's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors UPDF FC here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mbarara City Clean Sheet 68%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbarara City UPDF FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Mbarara City
3:1
Oct 3, 2025 Premier League
Mbarara City vs UPDF FC
0:1
Feb 17, 2025 Premier League
Mbarara City vs UPDF FC
0:1
Nov 6, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Mbarara City
2:1
Apr 26, 2024 Premier League
Mbarara City vs UPDF FC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbarara City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssekamatte S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbarara City 77 / 100
UPDF FC 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbarara City UPDF FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MBA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbarara City found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: UPDF FC conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Mbarara City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mbarara City VS UPDF FC
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615