Sport Picks

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Mbeya City vs Alliance

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Nyangi J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 game between Mbeya City and Alliance finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alliance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mbeya City
30%
Draws
31%
Alliance
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mbeya City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Alliance's 0.97 goals per match outpaces what Mbeya City have produced (0.84).
  • Win probability leans Mbeya City's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%
Alliance Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbeya City Alliance
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.84 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Alliance
0:1
Oct 31, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Alliance vs Mbeya City
0:0
Jan 20, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Alliance vs Mbeya City
2:1
Sep 16, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Alliance
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbeya City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Alliance Compare

Top Goalscorer Nyangi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbeya City 59 / 100
Alliance 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbeya City Alliance

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alliance's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Solid form: Mbeya City remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Mbeya City found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Mbeya City VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbeya City

(Home)
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0
Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1
Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Dodoma Jiji
Page 1 of 7

Alliance

(Away)
26 Jul
Alliance
3 : 2
Namungo
23 Jul
Alliance
2 : 2
Ndanda
19 Jul
Simba
5 : 1
Alliance
15 Jul
JKT Tanzania
1 : 1
Alliance
09 Jul
Alliance
2 : 0
Lipuli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 38 27 7 4 78:21 88
2 Young Africans 38 19 15 4 45:28 72
3 Azam 38 20 10 8 52:26 70
4 Namungo 38 17 13 8 46:37 64
5 Polisi Tanzania 38 15 10 13 37:35 55
6 JKT Tanzania 38 13 15 10 34:32 54
7 Coastal Union 38 14 11 13 33:30 53
8 Kagera Sugar 38 15 7 16 44:41 52
9 Biashara Mara United 38 12 14 12 29:27 50
10 Tanzania Prisons 38 10 19 9 35:30 49
11 Mwadui 38 12 11 15 39:45 47
12 Ruvu Shooting 38 12 11 15 34:42 47
13 Kinondoni MC 38 13 7 18 35:47 46
14 Mtibwa Sugar 38 11 12 15 30:34 45
15 Mbeya City 38 12 9 17 33:42 45
16 Mbao 38 12 9 17 33:43 45
17 Alliance 38 11 12 15 36:48 45
18 Lipuli 38 12 8 18 43:51 44
19 Ndanda 38 9 14 15 28:35 41
20 Singida United 38 4 6 28 23:73 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 (Relegation)