Sport Picks
Mbeya City vs Coastal Union Prediction & H2H Stats
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya 
Match Events
32'
32'
Sub
Maranyingi B. In: Kijili K.
Out: Maranyingi B.
35'
35'
Maulid M.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Sub
Majimengi H. In: Mwani W.
Out: Majimengi H.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Mbeya City and Coastal Union finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Coastal Union.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mbeya City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Coastal Union come out ahead of Mbeya City on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Mbeya City's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Coastal Union have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%
Coastal Union Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mbeya City | Coastal Union |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 13, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Coastal Union
0:2
Nov 26, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Mbeya City
2:0
Feb 18, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Mbeya City
1:0
Nov 13, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Coastal Union
2:2
May 24, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Coastal Union
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mbeya City Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Coastal Union Compare
Top Goalscorer Mwanza S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mbeya City 77 / 100
Coastal Union 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mbeya City Coastal Union
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Coastal Union let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Mbeya City found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Mbeya City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Mbeya City VS Coastal Union
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mbeya City
(Home) 12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0 Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0 Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1 Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Dodoma Jiji
Page 1 of 6
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1 Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Dodoma Jiji
14 Aug
Mbeya City
0 : 1 Geita Gold
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mbeya City
0 : 0 TRA United
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Coastal Union
(Away) 12 Sept
Coastal Union
2 : 1 JKT Tanzania
06 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 2 Coastal Union
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
24 Aug
Coastal Union
1 : 1 TRA United
20 Aug
Young Africans
4 : 1 Coastal Union
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 2 Coastal Union
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
20 Aug
Young Africans
4 : 1 Coastal Union
24 Jun
TRA United
1 : 1 Coastal Union
20 Jun
Simba
4 : 0 Coastal Union
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
