Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Sokoine Stadium

Coastal Union

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mbeya City play Coastal Union in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mbeya City averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Coastal Union averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Mbeya City won 0, Coastal Union won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 13, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Mbeya City and 1.25 for Coastal Union. This points to a Coastal Union double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Mbeya City

27%

Draws

44%

Coastal Union

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Coastal Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Mbeya City picked up more points recently compared to Coastal Union.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Mbeya City Clean Sheet 19%

Coastal Union Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mbeya City	Coastal Union
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	10
Draws	9	9
Losses	14	11
Goals Scored	0.87	1.07
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Coastal Union

Possession: 46% - 49% Cards: 2 - 1

0:2

Nov 26, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Coastal Union vs Mbeya City

Possession: 47% - 53% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Feb 18, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Coastal Union vs Mbeya City

Possession: 45% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Nov 13, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Coastal Union

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 4 - 3

2:2

May 24, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Coastal Union

Possession: 55% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbeya City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Coastal Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwanza S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbeya City 30 / 100

Coastal Union 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mbeya City Coastal Union

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Coastal Union or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mbeya City attacking → ← attacking Coastal Union

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya City scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Coastal Union let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mbeya City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Coastal Union lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 39

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9