Sport Picks
Mbeya Kwanza vs Kagera Sugar Prediction & H2H Stats
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 
Match Events
51'
51'
Mpepo E.
Assist: Mwasimba C.
58'
58'
Mwasondola J.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 game between Mbeya Kwanza and Kagera Sugar finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbeya Kwanza.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
20%
80%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kagera Sugar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Kagera Sugar come out ahead of Mbeya Kwanza on wins alone.
- 80% — that's where the model lands on Kagera Sugar taking it.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mbeya Kwanza Clean Sheet 10%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mbeya Kwanza | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 36 |
| Wins | 4 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 20 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.98 | 2.17 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya Kwanza vs Kagera Sugar
2:0
Dec 22, 2021 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya Kwanza
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mbeya Kwanza Compare
Top Goalscorer Mpepo E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mwasondola J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49
Kagera Sugar Compare
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.21
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mbeya Kwanza 22 / 100
Kagera Sugar 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mbeya Kwanza Kagera Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kagera Sugar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kagera Sugar has conceded goals in 81% of their last 36 outings.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Kagera Sugar lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Mbeya Kwanza scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Mbeya Kwanza VS Kagera Sugar
0.33 Goals Scored 1
3.33 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
67% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mbeya Kwanza
(Home) 05 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
3 : 1 Mbeya Kwanza
28 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 4 Polisi Tanzania
13 Mar
JKT Tanzania
3 : 0 Mbeya Kwanza
26 May
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 2 Biashara Mara United
19 May
Biashara Mara United
2 : 0 Mbeya Kwanza
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 4 Polisi Tanzania
26 May
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 2 Biashara Mara United
29 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 0 Simba
25 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
1 : 2 Ruvu Shooting
25 May
Mbeya Kwanza
2 : 0 Kagera Sugar
Page 1 of 3
Kagera Sugar
(Away) 13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1 Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2 Azam
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2 Kagera Sugar
19 Aug
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1 Singida Black Stars
Page 1 of 8
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1 Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2 Kagera Sugar
22 Jun
Simba
1 : 0 Kagera Sugar
18 Jun
Namungo
0 : 0 Kagera Sugar
14 Apr
Singida Black Stars
2 : 0 Kagera Sugar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 49:8 | 74 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 41:14 | 61 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 41:28 | 49 |
| 4 | Geita Gold | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 32:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Namungo | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 42:34 | 41 |
| 6 | Kagera Sugar | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 20:25 | 39 |
| 7 | Coastal Union | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 22:31 | 38 |
| 8 | Polisi Tanzania | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 21:23 | 37 |
| 9 | Mbeya City | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 25:29 | 37 |
| 10 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34:35 | 35 |
| 11 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 25:37 | 35 |
| 12 | Ruvu Shooting | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 28:39 | 34 |
| 13 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 25:34 | 31 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 21:34 | 29 |
| 15 | Biashara Mara United | 30 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 23:35 | 28 |
| 16 | Mbeya Kwanza | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 22:39 | 25 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2022/2023 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)
