Sport Picks
Mbeya Kwanza vs Mtibwa Sugar Prediction & H2H Stats
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 
Match Events
37'
37'
Mululi M.
40'
40'
Kyombo H.
(Penalty)
74'
74'
Sultan O.
AI Match Summary
Mtibwa Sugar in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mtibwa Sugar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mtibwa Sugar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Mtibwa Sugar lately — more wins on the board than Mbeya Kwanza.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Mbeya Kwanza Clean Sheet 10%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mbeya Kwanza | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 36 |
| Wins | 4 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 12 |
| Losses | 20 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.57 | 0.94 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 26, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya Kwanza vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:2
Sep 27, 2021 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya Kwanza
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mbeya Kwanza Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Mululi M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sultan O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mbeya Kwanza 34 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mbeya Kwanza Mtibwa Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mtibwa Sugar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Away concern: Mtibwa Sugar has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Mtibwa Sugar has conceded goals in 78% of their last 36 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Mbeya Kwanza scored in 47% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Mbeya Kwanza VS Mtibwa Sugar
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
3.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Mbeya Kwanza
(Home) 05 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
3 : 1 Mbeya Kwanza
28 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 4 Polisi Tanzania
13 Mar
JKT Tanzania
3 : 0 Mbeya Kwanza
26 May
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 2 Biashara Mara United
19 May
Biashara Mara United
2 : 0 Mbeya Kwanza
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 4 Polisi Tanzania
26 May
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 2 Biashara Mara United
29 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
0 : 0 Simba
25 Jun
Mbeya Kwanza
1 : 2 Ruvu Shooting
25 May
Mbeya Kwanza
2 : 0 Kagera Sugar
Page 1 of 3
Mtibwa Sugar
(Away) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 8
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
20 May
TRA United
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 49:8 | 74 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 41:14 | 61 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 41:28 | 49 |
| 4 | Geita Gold | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 32:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Namungo | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 42:34 | 41 |
| 6 | Kagera Sugar | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 20:25 | 39 |
| 7 | Coastal Union | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 22:31 | 38 |
| 8 | Polisi Tanzania | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 21:23 | 37 |
| 9 | Mbeya City | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 25:29 | 37 |
| 10 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34:35 | 35 |
| 11 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 25:37 | 35 |
| 12 | Ruvu Shooting | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 28:39 | 34 |
| 13 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 25:34 | 31 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 21:34 | 29 |
| 15 | Biashara Mara United | 30 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 23:35 | 28 |
| 16 | Mbeya Kwanza | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 22:39 | 25 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2022/2023 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2021/2022 (Relegation)
