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MCF vs Naivas FC

Kenya Kenya

Super League
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AI Match Summary

The Super League game between MCF and Naivas FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naivas FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
MCF
20%
Draws
47%
Naivas FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Naivas FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Naivas FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Naivas FC taking it.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Naivas FC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
MCF Clean Sheet 17%
Naivas FC Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MCF Naivas FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Super League
MCF vs Naivas FC
0:1
Oct 4, 2025 Super League
Naivas FC vs MCF
1:0
May 17, 2025 Super League
MCF vs Naivas FC
2:1
Nov 30, 2024 Super League
Naivas FC vs MCF
1:0
Jun 8, 2024 Super League
Naivas FC vs MCF
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MCF 20 / 100
Naivas FC 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MCF Naivas FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naivas FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naivas FC has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: MCF remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

MCF found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

MCF VS Naivas FC
0.63 Goals Scored 2.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

MCF

(Home)
13 Jun
MCF
0 : 3
Fortune Sacco
07 Jun
Kibera
1 : 2
MCF
01 Jun
MCF
2 : 0
Mwatate United
27 May
Migori
2 : 1
MCF
23 May
Nairobi City Stars
0 : 0
MCF
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Naivas FC

(Away)
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1
Mombasa United
07 Jun
Kabati
2 : 1
Naivas FC
01 Jun
Naivas FC
2 : 0
Vihiga United
28 May
Mwatate United
0 : 2
Naivas FC
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1
Naivas FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Migori 38 25 6 7 57:29 81
2 3K FC 38 23 8 7 62:26 77
3 Mombasa United 38 24 4 10 51:32 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 56:28 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 51:30 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 61:41 63
7 Naivas FC 38 17 10 11 47:30 61
8 Talanta FC 38 16 9 13 53:41 57
9 Kibera 38 15 8 15 32:33 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 31:27 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 37:36 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 35:41 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 30:51 43
14 Kabati 38 10 9 19 32:52 39
15 Kisumu All-Stars 38 10 9 19 23:47 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 32:44 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 27:48 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 24:42 34
19 Vihiga United 38 9 9 20 29:55 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 27:64 25
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)