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Mechal SC vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Gugsa C.
45' Event
Fatuddin J.
65' Event
Musiige C.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Mechal SC and Negele Arsi Ketema FC finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mechal SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Mechal SC
33%
Draws
40%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Negele Arsi Ketema FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Negele Arsi Ketema FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Negele Arsi Ketema FC's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Mechal SC Clean Sheet 24%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mechal SC Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 11 11
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Premier League
Mechal SC vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
4:0
Jan 4, 2026 Premier League
Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Mechal SC
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mechal SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gugsa C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fatuddin J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mechal SC 29 / 100
Negele Arsi Ketema FC 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mechal SC Negele Arsi Ketema FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Mechal SC scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Negele Arsi Ketema FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Mechal SC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mechal SC VS Negele Arsi Ketema FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mechal SC

(Home)
03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0
Hadiya Hossana
28 Jun
Sheger Ketema FC
2 : 0
Mechal SC
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
14 Jun
St. Georges
3 : 0
Mechal SC
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2
Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6

Negele Arsi Ketema FC

(Away)
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 0
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1
Hawassa
04 Jun
Welayta Dicha
0 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)