Sport Picks

Australia

A-League 2025/2026 AAMI Park

Melbourne City

0 - 1

Newcastle Jets

Our Tip

Match Events

47'

Wilmering D.

57'

Sub

Adams E. In: Mizunuma K.

Out: Adams E.

58'

Sub

Grozos K. In: Bayliss L.

Out: Grozos K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The A-League 2025/2026 game between Melbourne City and Newcastle Jets finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newcastle Jets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Melbourne City

33%

Draws

27%

Newcastle Jets

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Melbourne City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Newcastle Jets carry the better recent record into this one.
Melbourne City are the model's pick here, at 40%.
Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%

Melbourne City Clean Sheet 18%

Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Melbourne City	Newcastle Jets
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	11	16
Draws	11	4
Losses	10	9
Goals Scored	1.63	1.88
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 A-League

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets

Possession: 42% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Dec 6, 2025 A-League

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 4 - 4

0:1

Mar 12, 2025 A-League

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets

Possession: 49% - 58% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Oct 19, 2024 A-League

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City

Possession: 49% - 60% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Mar 30, 2024 A-League

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets

Possession: 53% - 52% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melbourne City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Newcastle Jets Compare

Top Goalscorer Rose L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melbourne City 40 / 100

Newcastle Jets 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Melbourne City Newcastle Jets

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCY Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Jets let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Melbourne City scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Recent resilience: Melbourne City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 0.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Melbourne City VS Newcastle Jets

1.63 Goals Scored 1.88

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38

75% Over 1.5 100%

38% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Newcastle Jets	26	15	3	8	55:39	48
2	Adelaide Utd	26	12	7	7	46:36	43
3	Auckland FC	26	11	9	6	42:29	42
4	Melbourne Victory	26	11	7	8	44:33	40
5	Sydney FC	26	11	6	9	33:25	39
6	Melbourne City	26	10	8	8	33:33	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	9	7	10	37:44	34
8	Wellington Phoenix	26	9	6	11	36:48	33
9	Central Coast	26	8	8	10	35:42	32
10	Perth Glory	26	8	7	11	32:39	31
11	Brisbane Roar	26	6	8	12	27:36	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers	26	5	6	15	27:43	21