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Melbourne Victory W vs Newcastle W

Australia Australia

A-League Women John McEwen Reserve, Shepparton
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Blissett C.
39'
Lowe R.
41'
Prior N.

AI Match Summary

Melbourne Victory W in this A-League Women matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Melbourne Victory W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Melbourne Victory W
39%
Draws
31%
Newcastle W
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Melbourne Victory W lately — more wins on the board than Newcastle W.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Melbourne Victory W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Melbourne Victory W Clean Sheet 16%
Newcastle W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melbourne Victory W Newcastle W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 4 2
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 0.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Newcastle W
2:1
Dec 19, 2025 A-League Women
Newcastle W vs Melbourne Victory W
1:3
Mar 21, 2025 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Newcastle W
4:3
Jan 11, 2025 A-League Women
Newcastle W vs Melbourne Victory W
0:2
Mar 23, 2024 A-League Women
Newcastle W vs Melbourne Victory W
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melbourne Victory W Compare

Top Goalscorer Furphy H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Newcastle W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melbourne Victory W 30 / 100
Newcastle W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melbourne Victory W Newcastle W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melbourne Victory W's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Newcastle W has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Newcastle W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melbourne Victory W VS Newcastle W
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Melbourne Victory W

(Home)
09 May
Melbourne City W
1 : 0
Melbourne Victory W
02 May
Melbourne Victory W
0 : 1
Melbourne City W
25 Apr
Canberra W
1 : 3
Melbourne Victory W
03 Apr
Perth W
0 : 1
Melbourne Victory W
28 Mar
Sydney W
2 : 1
Melbourne Victory W
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Newcastle W

(Away)
05 Apr
Newcastle W
1 : 2
Melbourne City W
28 Mar
Adelaide W
1 : 3
Newcastle W
20 Mar
Brisbane Roar W
4 : 2
Newcastle W
13 Mar
Newcastle W
3 : 1
Sydney W
21 Feb
Newcastle W
2 : 3
Perth W
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Melbourne City W20124436:2040
2Wellington Phoenix W20104638:1734
3Canberra W2094730:2431
4Brisbane Roar W2094737:3931
5Adelaide W2093824:2630
6Melbourne Victory W2084827:2428
7Central Coast W2077627:2628
8Perth W20731020:3024
9Newcastle W20721130:3623
10Sydney W2047918:2919
11Western Sydney Wanderers W20541118:3419
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)