Sport Picks
Melilla vs Lorca Deportiva
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro, Melilla 
Match Events
12'
12'
Claverias A.
45'
45'
Naranjo J.
85'
85'
Iglesias J.
AI Match Summary
Melilla in this Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Melilla.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lorca Deportiva
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
23%
/ Medium Confidence
- Lorca Deportiva have won more games recently than Melilla.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Melilla taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Melilla Clean Sheet 68%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melilla | Lorca Deportiva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 12 |
| Draws | 12 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Lorca Deportiva
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs Melilla
1:0
Feb 18, 2018 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Lorca Deportiva
1:2
Oct 1, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs Melilla
0:0
Feb 3, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Lorca Deportiva
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Claverias A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Iglesias J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Lorca Deportiva Compare
Top Goalscorer Naranjo J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melilla 50 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melilla Lorca Deportiva
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Melilla's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Lorca Deportiva has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Difficult form: Lorca Deportiva registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Melilla VS Lorca Deportiva
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Melilla
(Home) 03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3 Melilla
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4 Linares
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0 Melilla
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1 Aguilas FC
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1 Melilla
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4 Linares
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1 Aguilas FC
28 Mar
Melilla
3 : 0 Almeria B
22 Mar
Melilla
2 : 1 Lorca Deportiva
08 Mar
Melilla
1 : 1 Antoniano
Page 1 of 3
Lorca Deportiva
(Away) 06 Aug
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0 Aguilas FC
03 May
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
26 Apr
Lorca Deportiva
2 : 2 Yeclano
19 Apr
Aguilas FC
2 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
12 Apr
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 1 Xerez CD
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
19 Apr
Aguilas FC
2 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
05 Apr
Almeria B
1 : 1 Lorca Deportiva
22 Mar
Melilla
2 : 1 Lorca Deportiva
01 Mar
CD Extremadura
3 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:38 | 63 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 50:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Aguilas FC | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 45:25 | 61 |
| 4 | Xerez CD | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 32:24 | 59 |
| 5 | Jaen | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 43:33 | 58 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:25 | 57 |
| 7 | UCAM Murcia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Linares | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 9 | La Union (Malacitano) | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:43 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | 45 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 33:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Antoniano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:40 | 44 |
| 13 | CD Estepona | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:44 | 44 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 28:37 | 40 |
| 15 | Xerez Deportivo FC | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 34:43 | 36 |
| 16 | Melilla | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 36:40 | 34 |
| 17 | Almeria B | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26:53 | 21 |
| 18 | Malaga B | 34 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
