Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Melville vs Eastern Suburbs

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Eastern Suburbs in this Chatham Cup 2012 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Melville
15%
Draws
57%
Eastern Suburbs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Eastern Suburbs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Melville lately — more wins on the board than Eastern Suburbs.
  • Eastern Suburbs are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Melville have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Eastern Suburbs, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%
Eastern Suburbs Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Eastern Suburbs
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 1 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.6 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2012 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Eastern Suburbs
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 22 / 100
Eastern Suburbs 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Eastern Suburbs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eastern Suburbs Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melville found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Eastern Suburbs has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Eastern Suburbs lost 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Eastern Suburbs
0.33 Goals Scored 3
3 Goals Conceded 1.5
33% Over 1.5 100%
33% Over 2.5 88%
33% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Eastern Suburbs

(Away)
16 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 2
Wellington Olympic
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3
Eastern Suburbs
24 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 2
Western Suburbs
16 Nov
Cashmere Technical
1 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Miramar 4
Stop Out SC 0
Dunedin 1
Western AFC 0
Three Kings 2
Central United 3
Melville 0
Eastern Suburbs 1
Caversham 4
Cashmere Technical 2
Manukau City 2
Papatoetoe 1
Birkenhead 4
Hamilton 1
Lower Hutt City 2
Napier City 0
Quarter-finals
Miramar 5
Dunedin 1
Central United 2
Eastern Suburbs 0
Caversham 3
Manukau City 1
Birkenhead 2
Lower Hutt City 3
Semi-finals
Miramar 0
Central United 6
Caversham 0
Lower Hutt City 4
Final
Central United 6
Lower Hutt City 1