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Melville vs Onehunga

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Onehunga in this Chatham Cup 2018 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Melville
15%
Draws
64%
Onehunga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Onehunga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Melville have won more games recently than Onehunga.
  • Win probability leans Onehunga's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Melville have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Onehunga, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Onehunga have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Melville Clean Sheet 16%
Onehunga Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Onehunga
Matches Played 30 14
Wins 14 10
Draws 1 0
Losses 15 4
Goals Scored 1.6 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2018 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Onehunga
1:3
Jul 15, 2017 Chatham Cup
Onehunga vs Melville
1:0
Jul 26, 2014 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Onehunga
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 15 / 100
Onehunga 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Onehunga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Onehunga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melville scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Onehunga let in goals in 57% of their last 14 matches.

Solid form: Melville remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Onehunga

(Away)
25 Aug
Napier City
2 : 1
Onehunga
03 Aug
Onehunga
5 : 4
Wellington Olympic
06 Jul
Onehunga
2 : 0
North Shore
04 Aug
Onehunga
1 : 4
Western Suburbs
14 Jul
Melville
1 : 3
Onehunga
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Manukau United 3
Mt Albert Ponsonby 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Roslyn Wakari 0
Melville 1
Onehunga 3
North Wellington 1
Western Suburbs 4
Wairarapa United 2
Stop Out SC 1
Birkenhead 4
Western Springs 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Green Island AFC 0
Central United 0
East Coast 5
Quarter-finals
Manukau United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Onehunga 1
Western Suburbs 4
Wairarapa United 1
Birkenhead 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
East Coast 0
Semi-finals
Cashmere Technical 2
Western Suburbs 3
Birkenhead 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Final
Western Suburbs 1
Birkenhead 2