Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mendrisio vs Locarno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

1.Liga Classic Group 3
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mendrisio host Locarno in the 1.Liga Classic Group 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Locarno have shipped 2.19 goals a game lately, while Mendrisio have conceded 1.31 and scored 1.34. Head-to-head, Mendrisio have won 0 to Locarno's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Feb 12, 2025, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.38) point toward Mendrisio. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mendrisio
30%
Draws
47%
Locarno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Locarno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Mendrisio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Locarno are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular 1.Liga Classic Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Mendrisio Clean Sheet 17%
Locarno Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mendrisio Locarno
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 11 6
Draws 10 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.34 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.31 2.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Mendrisio vs Locarno
0:0
Jul 14, 2017 Club Friendly
Mendrisio vs Locarno
1:2
May 14, 2017 1.Liga Classic Group 3
Mendrisio vs Locarno
0:0
Oct 22, 2016 1.Liga Classic Group 3
Locarno vs Mendrisio
1:1
May 28, 2016 1.Liga Classic Group 3
Mendrisio vs Locarno
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mendrisio 28 / 100
Locarno 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mendrisio Locarno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Locarno Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Locarno's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 26 matches.

Mendrisio scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Mendrisio has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mendrisio VS Locarno
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mendrisio

(Home)
17 Oct
Mendrisio
3 : 1
Kosova
10 Oct
Dietikon
2 : 0
Mendrisio
03 Oct
Mendrisio
1 : 1
Tuggen
26 Sept
Wettswil-Bonstetten
1 : 1
Mendrisio
20 Sept
Mendrisio
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
Page 1 of 7

Locarno

(Away)
18 Oct
Concordia
1 : 2
Locarno
10 Oct
Locarno
1 : 0
Kosova
03 Oct
Thalwil
2 : 2
Locarno
27 Sept
Locarno
3 : 1
Baden
19 Sept
Gossau
1 : 0
Locarno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Gallen II 10 7 1 2 21:16 22
2 Tuggen 10 6 3 1 23:12 21
3 Taverne 10 6 2 2 26:13 20
4 Thalwil 10 4 4 2 16:11 16
5 Baden 10 5 1 4 21:17 16
6 Kosova 10 4 4 2 15:12 16
7 Collina d'Oro 10 4 3 3 11:12 15
8 Dietikon 10 4 2 4 14:14 14
9 Gossau 10 4 2 4 15:19 14
10 Eschen/Mauren 10 3 3 4 16:19 12
11 Locarno 10 2 4 4 12:13 10
12 Freienbach 10 2 4 4 11:15 10
13 Wettswil-Bonstetten 10 2 3 5 12:15 9
14 Winterthur II 10 3 0 7 10:18 9
15 Mendrisio 10 1 5 4 11:15 8
16 FC Widnau 10 1 3 6 8:21 6
Promotion - 1.Liga Classic Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)