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Mensajero vs San Bartolome - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mensajero host San Bartolome in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent numbers: Mensajero at 1.33 goals for, 0.91 against; San Bartolome at 0.97 for, 1.15 against. Head-to-head, Mensajero have won 1 to San Bartolome's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Jan 17, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.76 xG vs 0.88) point toward Mensajero. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mensajero
20%
Draws
44%
San Bartolome
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Bartolome

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mensajero lately — more wins on the board than San Bartolome.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Mensajero Clean Sheet 20%
San Bartolome Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mensajero San Bartolome
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 19 9
Draws 5 16
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.33 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Bartolome vs Mensajero
0:0
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Mensajero vs San Bartolome
2:0
Feb 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Mensajero vs San Bartolome
0:1
Sep 29, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Bartolome vs Mensajero
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mensajero 36 / 100
San Bartolome 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mensajero San Bartolome

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Bartolome Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mensajero's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

San Bartolome has conceded goals in 64% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mensajero remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mensajero VS San Bartolome
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mensajero

(Home)
03 Oct
Villaverde Norte
1 : 2
Mensajero
27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0
San Miguel
19 Sept
Anaza
1 : 0
Mensajero
13 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0
Tenerife C
09 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 2
Murcia
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San Bartolome

(Away)
03 Oct
San Bartolome
1 : 1
Villa Santa Brigida
27 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Bartolome
19 Sept
San Bartolome
4 : 2
Estrella
11 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
0 : 1
San Bartolome
10 May
Tenerife C
0 : 1
San Bartolome
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 11:2 9
2 Real Union Tenerife 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
3 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
4 San Bartolome 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
5 CD Marino 4 2 1 1 12:6 7
6 Las Palmas C 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
7 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
8 Panaderia 4 2 1 1 10:8 7
9 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
10 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 5:4 6
11 Villa Santa Brigida 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
12 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 6:8 4
13 Estrella 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 5:8 4
15 Union Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 4:6 3
16 CD Laguna 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
18 UD Playas de Sotavento 4 0 1 3 3:15 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 (Play Offs)