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Merani Tbilisi vs Guria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Sichinava D.
22'
Burjanadze T.
24' Event
Sichinava D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between Merani Tbilisi and Guria finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Merani Tbilisi
30%
Draws
38%
Guria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Merani Tbilisi haven't matched Guria's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Guria's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Merani Tbilisi Clean Sheet 10%
Guria Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merani Tbilisi Guria
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 20
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.54 2.86
Goals Conceded 1.61 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2026 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Guria
0:5
Jun 26, 2026 Georgian Cup
Guria vs Merani Tbilisi
6:1
Mar 12, 2026 Liga 3
Guria vs Merani Tbilisi
7:0
Oct 24, 2024 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Guria
2:0
May 2, 2024 Liga 3
Guria vs Merani Tbilisi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merani Tbilisi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Guria Compare

Top Goalscorer Sichinava D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kapanadze T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merani Tbilisi 18 / 100
Guria 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merani Tbilisi Guria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Merani Tbilisi went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Merani Tbilisi found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Guria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 45% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Merani Tbilisi VS Guria
2.25 Goals Scored 3.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Merani Tbilisi

(Home)
16 Oct
Locomotive Tbilisi
1 : 2
Merani Tbilisi
09 Oct
Merani Tbilisi
2 : 2
Iveria Khashuri
17 Sept
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi
2 : 2
Merani Tbilisi
10 Sept
Merani Tbilisi
4 : 1
Khobi
03 Sept
Margveti 2006
0 : 2
Merani Tbilisi
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Guria

(Away)
16 Oct
Guria
0 : 0
FC Tbilisi 2025
09 Oct
Margveti 2006
0 : 4
Guria
17 Sept
Guria
2 : 0
Dinamo Tbilisi 2
10 Sept
FC Gardabani
0 : 5
Guria
03 Sept
Guria
2 : 0
Gonio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guria 24 17 4 3 67:11 55
2 FC Tbilisi 2025 24 15 8 1 57:14 53
3 Iberia 1999 2 24 11 10 3 41:23 43
4 Merani Tbilisi 24 12 7 5 41:30 43
5 Gonio 24 12 5 7 33:24 41
6 WIT Georgia 24 11 5 8 38:28 38
7 Orbi 24 10 5 9 39:29 35
8 Didube 24 9 8 7 39:35 35
9 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 24 10 5 9 37:34 35
10 Locomotive Tbilisi 25 9 7 9 34:31 34
11 Margveti 2006 24 9 4 11 32:41 31
12 Khobi 24 7 4 13 33:48 25
13 Iveria Khashuri 25 3 11 11 34:48 20
14 FC Gardabani 25 4 4 17 19:61 16
15 Betlemi Keda 25 4 4 17 15:66 16
16 FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi 24 3 5 16 22:58 14
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 (Relegation)