Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mercadal vs Alaior

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 11 2011/2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mercadal in this Tercera Division - Group 11 2011/2012 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mercadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Mercadal
30%
Draws
16%
Alaior
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mercadal lately — more wins on the board than Alaior.
  • Model gives Mercadal a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 20%
Alaior Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mercadal Alaior
Matches Played 44 31
Wins 19 6
Draws 9 7
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.11 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alaior vs Mercadal
0:0
Nov 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Alaior
1:1
Mar 3, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Alaior
3:0
Oct 12, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alaior vs Mercadal
0:0
Apr 23, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Alaior
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 36 / 100
Alaior 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mercadal Alaior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mercadal found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (44 games).

Alaior has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Mercadal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Alaior lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mercadal VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mercadal

(Home)
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
03 May
Mallorca B
7 : 0
Mercadal
Page 1 of 9

Alaior

(Away)
12 May
Alaior
1 : 1
Portmany
04 May
Mallorca B
2 : 1
Alaior
01 May
Alaior
0 : 3
UD Poblense
27 Apr
Constancia
1 : 0
Alaior
21 Apr
Alaior
0 : 0
Collerense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Constancia 38 24 13 1 68:21 85
2 Binissalem 38 24 8 6 59:26 80
3 Llosetense 38 23 7 8 81:50 76
4 CD Montuiri 38 22 9 7 66:28 75
5 El Espinar Sant Rafel 38 20 12 6 56:23 72
6 Pena Deportiva 38 20 7 11 61:35 67
7 Santanyi 38 19 10 9 65:40 67
8 Campos 38 14 14 10 38:31 56
9 UD Poblense 38 14 13 11 49:39 55
10 Mercadal 38 14 10 14 42:47 52
11 Collerense 38 11 12 15 46:58 45
12 Felanitx 38 11 9 18 36:58 42
13 Son Ferrer 38 10 12 16 28:50 42
14 Alcudia 38 10 9 19 42:54 39
15 Espana 38 11 6 21 44:66 39
16 Atletico Isleno 38 9 11 18 46:60 38
17 Ferriolense 38 10 6 22 44:60 36
18 Platges de Calvia 38 9 7 22 41:65 34
19 CD Ferrerias 38 5 8 25 27:87 23
20 Alaior 38 4 9 25 35:76 21
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)