Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025

Penya Independent

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mercadal play Penya Independent in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mercadal averaged 1 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Penya Independent averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Mercadal won 0, Penya Independent won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 29, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Mercadal and 1.13 for Penya Independent. This points to a Penya Independent double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Mercadal

20%

Draws

42%

Penya Independent

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penya Independent

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Mercadal picked up more points recently compared to Penya Independent.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 40%

Over 3.5 Goals 24%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Mercadal Clean Sheet 21%

Penya Independent Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mercadal	Penya Independent
Matches Played	36	30
Wins	16	12
Draws	4	8
Losses	16	10
Goals Scored	1	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.33	1.07

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Mercadal vs Penya Independent

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

Nov 16, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Independent vs Mercadal

Possession: 45% - 55% Cards: 0 - 3

3:0

Jan 21, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Mercadal vs Penya Independent

Possession: 51% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Sep 18, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Independent vs Mercadal

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 0 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mercadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Penya Independent Compare

Top Goalscorer Reales D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 38 / 100

Penya Independent 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mercadal Penya Independent

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Penya Independent or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.6%

2.94

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mercadal attacking → ← attacking Penya Independent

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mercadal scored in 67% of their last 36 games.

Penya Independent let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mercadal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Penya Independent lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 44

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Poblense	34	22	6	6	47:17	72
2	Constancia	34	18	13	3	55:31	67
3	Formentera	34	19	9	6	68:34	66
4	Porreres	34	17	11	6	51:32	62
5	Penya Independent	34	17	7	10	59:34	58
6	Platges de Calvia	34	14	12	8	51:37	54
7	Manacor	34	13	12	9	54:36	51
8	Alcudia	34	13	8	13	51:53	47
9	Binissalem	34	13	8	13	35:34	47
10	Llosetense	34	12	8	14	47:45	44
11	Santanyi	34	10	13	11	40:45	43
12	Mercadal	34	10	10	14	40:43	40
13	Felanitx	34	10	10	14	33:50	40
14	Collerense	34	9	12	13	42:48	39
15	Portmany	34	8	13	13	43:51	37
16	PE Sant Jordi	34	8	6	20	30:52	30
17	Campos	34	4	8	22	31:75	20
18	Migjorn	34	4	4	26	22:82	16