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Mercadal vs Soller

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Cursach X.
85' Event
Carreras R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2023/2024 game between Mercadal and Soller finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mercadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Mercadal
20%
Draws
29%
Soller
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mercadal come out ahead of Soller on wins alone.
  • Mercadal are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mercadal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 20%
Soller Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mercadal Soller
Matches Played 40 31
Wins 16 4
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 24
Goals Scored 0.9 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.25 3.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Soller
2:0
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Soller vs Mercadal
2:1
Jan 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Soller vs Mercadal
1:2
Sep 10, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Soller
3:0
Apr 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Soller
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mercadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Cursach X.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carreras R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Soller Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 36 / 100
Soller 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mercadal Soller

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Soller conceded in 97% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Mercadal scored in 65% of their last 40 outings.

Solid form: Mercadal remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mercadal VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mercadal

(Home)
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
03 May
Mallorca B
7 : 0
Mercadal
29 Apr
Llosetense
6 : 1
Mercadal
26 Apr
Mercadal
1 : 0
Platges de Calvia
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Soller

(Away)
12 May
Soller
0 : 4
Constancia
05 May
Collerense
4 : 1
Soller
01 May
Soller
3 : 3
Arenal
27 Apr
Binissalem
2 : 1
Soller
21 Apr
Soller
2 : 1
Inter Manacor
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SD Ibiza 34 27 6 1 73:15 87
2 Mallorca B 34 22 8 4 72:16 74
3 UD Poblense 34 22 8 4 63:15 74
4 Platges de Calvia 34 18 9 7 47:22 63
5 Manacor 34 19 5 10 59:40 62
6 Santanyi 34 16 8 10 46:23 56
7 Constancia 34 15 8 11 44:32 53
8 Alcudia 34 14 7 13 54:44 49
9 Llosetense 34 14 7 13 37:38 49
10 Mercadal 34 12 9 13 33:37 45
11 Binissalem 34 12 7 15 35:38 43
12 Portmany 34 11 9 14 38:38 42
13 Collerense 34 10 8 16 39:55 38
14 Felanitx 34 10 5 19 37:53 35
15 Alaior 34 8 7 19 27:51 31
16 Arenal 34 6 8 20 28:59 26
17 Soller 34 4 5 25 26:98 17
18 Inter Manacor 34 2 4 28 22:106 10
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2023/2024 (Play Offs)