Sport Picks
Match Events
60'
60'
Cruz Vera Borda J.
81'
81'
Ruiz F. C.
AI Match Summary
The Primera C game between Mercedes and El Porvenir finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mercedes.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mercedes
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Mercedes carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Mercedes's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Primera C form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mercedes Clean Sheet 68%
El Porvenir Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mercedes | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 7 |
| Draws | 12 | 19 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Primera C
Mercedes vs El Porvenir
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Primera C
El Porvenir vs Mercedes
1:1
Jun 27, 2025 Primera C
Mercedes vs El Porvenir
0:0
Mar 18, 2025 Primera C
El Porvenir vs Mercedes
2:1
Sep 11, 2024 Primera C
Mercedes vs El Porvenir
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mercedes Compare
Top Goalscorer Cruz Vera Borda J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ruiz F. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
El Porvenir Compare
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mercedes 95 / 100
El Porvenir 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mercedes El Porvenir
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mercedes found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).
El Porvenir has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.
Mercedes went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mercedes VS El Porvenir
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Mercedes
(Home) 18 Jul
Mercedes
2 : 0 El Porvenir
12 Jul
Mercedes
1 : 1 Victoriano Arenas
06 Jul
CSR Espanol
0 : 3 Mercedes
27 Jun
Mercedes
5 : 0 Justo Jose de Urquiza
14 Jun
CA Lugano
1 : 0 Mercedes
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Mercedes
2 : 0 El Porvenir
12 Jul
Mercedes
1 : 1 Victoriano Arenas
27 Jun
Mercedes
5 : 0 Justo Jose de Urquiza
06 Jun
Mercedes
0 : 0 Deportivo Paraguayo
23 May
Mercedes
2 : 0 Leandro N. Alem
Page 1 of 3
El Porvenir
(Away) 18 Jul
Mercedes
2 : 0 El Porvenir
11 Jul
El Porvenir
0 : 0 Club Lujan
05 Jul
General Lamadrid
1 : 1 El Porvenir
27 Jun
El Porvenir
0 : 0 Leones de Rosario
13 Jun
El Porvenir
0 : 1 Atlas
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Mercedes
2 : 0 El Porvenir
05 Jul
General Lamadrid
1 : 1 El Porvenir
07 Jun
Canuelas
0 : 0 El Porvenir
23 May
Deportivo Espanol
0 : 0 El Porvenir
03 May
Claypole
1 : 2 El Porvenir
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 24:14 | 34 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 23:14 | 32 |
| 3 | CSR Espanol | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 26:17 | 30 |
| 4 | Mercedes | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 21:11 | 29 |
| 5 | CA Lugano | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:19 | 29 |
| 6 | Puerto Nuevo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 18:19 | 29 |
| 7 | Estrella Del Sur | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 21:17 | 28 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 17:13 | 27 |
| 9 | Leandro N. Alem | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 24:33 | 26 |
| 10 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 18:19 | 22 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 15:21 | 22 |
| 12 | Justo Jose de Urquiza | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 9:18 | 19 |
| 13 | Argentino de Rosario | 20 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 14 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10:25 | 16 |
Promotion - Primera C (Super final)
Promotion - Primera C (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Torneo Promocional Amateur (Promotion)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canuelas | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 23:12 | 36 |
| 2 | Club Lujan | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 22:14 | 33 |
| 3 | Leones de Rosario | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 29 |
| 4 | Yupanqui | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24:21 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Espanol | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 17:14 | 28 |
| 6 | General Lamadrid | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 18:20 | 28 |
| 7 | Sportivo Barracas | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22:21 | 25 |
| 8 | El Porvenir | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 15:15 | 25 |
| 9 | Atlas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 16:17 | 25 |
| 10 | CSD Central Ballester | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18:21 | 22 |
| 11 | Claypole | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 15:23 | 21 |
| 12 | Central Cordoba (Rosario) | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 12:15 | 20 |
| 13 | Fenix | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 13:21 | 20 |
| 14 | Deportivo Muniz | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 14:20 | 18 |
Promotion - Primera C (Super final)
Promotion - Primera C (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Torneo Promocional Amateur (Promotion)