Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Merikh Kosti vs Umm Mughad

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merikh Kosti play Umm Mughad in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Merikh Kosti averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Umm Mughad averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Merikh Kosti won 0, Umm Mughad won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 13, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.76 for Merikh Kosti and 1.88 for Umm Mughad. This points to a Umm Mughad double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Merikh Kosti
27%
Draws
51%
Umm Mughad
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Umm Mughad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Merikh Kosti picked up more points recently compared to Umm Mughad.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.76 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Merikh Kosti Clean Sheet 10%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merikh Kosti Umm Mughad
Matches Played 30 23
Wins 6 9
Draws 6 8
Losses 18 6
Goals Scored 0.8 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Premier League
Merikh Kosti vs Umm Mughad
0:2
Jan 23, 2026 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Merikh Kosti
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merikh Kosti 22 / 100
Umm Mughad 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merikh Kosti Umm Mughad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Umm Mughad or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Merikh Kosti attacking → ← attacking Umm Mughad

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merikh Kosti scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Umm Mughad let in goals in 61% of their last 23 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Merikh Kosti went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Umm Mughad lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 35
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman II1064017:522
2Hilal Alsahil1054113:619
3Al Shorta103438:613
4Al Taqadom1025312:1411
5Al-Mergheni100739:147
6Kober101273:175
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Madani10100024:630
2Umm Mughad1053218:818
3Al Hilal Manaqil1035210:714
4Rabita Kosti103167:1410
5Ahli Khartoum101367:216
6Merikh Kosti101277:175
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Merreikh II1064015:722
2Alfalah Atbra103435:413
3Al Saham Ad Damer1026210:912
4Al Hilal Karima1032511:1711
5Alamal SC Atbara102448:1010
6Al-Ahly Merowe101636:89
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hilal El-Fasher1054111:719
2Hay Al Wadi1043314:1315
3Haidob Al Nuhod1043313:815
4Al Fajr1033416:1812
5Zamala Ruwaba1032511:1311
6Al-Merreikh Obeid1031614:2010