Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga 2005

Elva

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Merkuur-Juunior play Elva in the Esiliiga 2005. Elva are favorites here. Recently, Merkuur-Juunior averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. Elva averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Merkuur-Juunior won 0, Elva won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 17, 2005 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Merkuur-Juunior and 1.00 for Elva. This points to a Elva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%

Merkuur-Juunior

25%

Draws

60%

Elva

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Merkuur-Juunior picked up more points recently compared to Elva.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 70%

Over 3.5 Goals 42%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Merkuur-Juunior Clean Sheet 23%

Elva Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 79%

Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Merkuur-Juunior	Elva
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	1	15
Draws	6	5
Losses	23	13
Goals Scored	0.67	1.82
Goals Conceded	2.7	1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2005 Esiliiga

Elva vs Merkuur-Juunior

Possession: 54% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Sep 13, 2005 Esiliiga

Merkuur-Juunior vs Elva

Possession: 44% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

0:2

May 7, 2005 Esiliiga

Elva vs Merkuur-Juunior

Possession: 40% - 48% Cards: 1 - 0

1:1

Apr 30, 2005 Esiliiga

Merkuur-Juunior vs Elva

Possession: 44% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merkuur-Juunior 18 / 100

Elva 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Merkuur-Juunior Elva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elva Win (2)

Secondary Pick Elva & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +114.3%

14.29

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.2%

1.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Merkuur-Juunior attacking → ← attacking Elva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merkuur-Juunior scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Elva let in goals in 79% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Merkuur-Juunior went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Elva lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 50

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Parnu Linnameeskond	36	26	6	4	92:39	84
2	Levadia U21	36	26	4	6	104:31	82
3	Lasnamae	36	23	8	5	111:30	77
4	Tallinna Kalev	36	18	9	9	85:71	63
5	Tervis Parnu	36	14	9	13	73:53	51
6	TVMK Tallinn II	36	12	5	19	51:80	41
7	Elva	36	10	6	20	42:71	36
8	Lelle	36	11	1	24	49:100	34
9	JK Jalgpallihaigla	36	9	4	23	38:100	31
10	Merkuur-Juunior	36	2	6	28	27:97	12