Sport Picks
Match Events
5'
5'
Shrimpton F.
11'
11'
Harris M.
90'
90'
Mottley-Henry D.
AI Match Summary
Chester in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chester.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chester
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Merthyr Town haven't matched Chester's recent run of results.
- Merthyr Town are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 19%
Chester Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Chester |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 17 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.68 | 0.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 10, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Chester
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 National League North
Chester vs Merthyr Town
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Harris M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Chester Compare
Top Goalscorer Shrimpton F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mottley-Henry D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 42 / 100
Chester 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Chester
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Merthyr Town scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.
Merthyr Town went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Chester let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Chester
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Swansea
Page 1 of 4
Chester
(Away) 05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1 Chester
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1 Morecambe
29 Aug
Hereford
1 : 1 Chester
22 Aug
Chester
1 : 0 Spalding United
18 Aug
Darlington FC
0 : 1 Chester
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1 Chester
29 Aug
Hereford
1 : 1 Chester
18 Aug
Darlington FC
0 : 1 Chester
08 Aug
Chorley
1 : 2 Chester
28 Jul
Nantwich
0 : 3 Chester
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 112:51 | 100 |
| 2 | South Shields | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 99:43 | 95 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 74:51 | 87 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 46 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 81:68 | 79 |
| 5 | Buxton | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 83:61 | 73 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 61:52 | 73 |
| 7 | Chester | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 66:64 | 73 |
| 8 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 95:86 | 70 |
| 9 | Darlington FC | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 78:68 | 69 |
| 10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 62:69 | 68 |
| 11 | Telford | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 85:65 | 65 |
| 12 | Marine | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 62:72 | 62 |
| 13 | Radcliffe | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 76:83 | 60 |
| 14 | Southport | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 60 |
| 15 | Chorley | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 66:65 | 57 |
| 16 | Worksop | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 66:74 | 57 |
| 17 | Oxford City | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 62:67 | 56 |
| 18 | Bedford | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 66:77 | 53 |
| 19 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 56:64 | 52 |
| 20 | Hereford | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 64:79 | 52 |
| 21 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 67:88 | 52 |
| 22 | Alfreton | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49:82 | 50 |
| 23 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 51:96 | 39 |
| 24 | Leamington | 46 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 41:90 | 29 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
