Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
England
National League North Penydarren Park, Merthyr 
Match Events
23'
23'
Clarke W.
83'
83'
Watts E.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Merthyr Town have won more games recently than Chorley.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 17%
Chorley Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Chorley |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.62 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
1:1
Feb 7, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
2:3
Oct 25, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Merthyr Town
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Watts E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Chorley Compare
Top Goalscorer Clarke W.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 31 / 100
Chorley 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Chorley
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chorley Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town scored in 90% of their last 29 games.
Chorley has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Merthyr Town has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Chorley
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
Page 1 of 4
Chorley
(Away) 19 Sept
Warrington Rylands
0 : 1 Chorley
12 Sept
King’s Lynn
2 : 0 Chorley
08 Sept
Chorley
5 : 2 Darlington FC
05 Sept
Oxford City
4 : 0 Chorley
31 Aug
Chorley
2 : 2 Brackley
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Warrington Rylands
0 : 1 Chorley
12 Sept
King’s Lynn
2 : 0 Chorley
05 Sept
Oxford City
4 : 0 Chorley
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Marine
0 : 2 Chorley
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21:4 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:6 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9:10 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18:14 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13:13 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:8 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 12 | King’s Lynn | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:16 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 18 | Telford | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:16 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9:19 | 6 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
