Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Chorley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League North 
Match Events
23'
23'
Clarke W.
83'
83'
Watts E.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chorley
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Chorley have won more games recently than Merthyr Town.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%
Chorley Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Chorley |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 7 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
1:1
Feb 7, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
2:3
Oct 25, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Merthyr Town
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Watts E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Chorley Compare
Top Goalscorer Clarke W.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 30 / 100
Chorley 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Chorley
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chorley Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Chorley has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Merthyr Town has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Chorley
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 31 Oct
Radcliffe
3 : 3 Merthyr Town
27 Oct
Oxford City
3 : 0 Merthyr Town
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3 Morecambe
17 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 King’s Lynn
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3 Morecambe
17 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 King’s Lynn
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
Page 1 of 4
Chorley
(Away) 31 Oct
Spennymoor
2 : 0 Chorley
27 Oct
Radcliffe
0 : 3 Chorley
24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
20 Oct
Worcester
1 : 0 Chorley
17 Oct
Chorley
1 : 1 Worcester
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Spennymoor
2 : 0 Chorley
27 Oct
Radcliffe
0 : 3 Chorley
20 Oct
Worcester
1 : 0 Chorley
03 Oct
Barton Town
1 : 4 Chorley
19 Sept
Warrington Rylands
0 : 1 Chorley
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Shields | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 26:11 | 27 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21:11 | 27 |
| 4 | Hereford | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24:11 | 26 |
| 5 | Buxton | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30:25 | 26 |
| 6 | King’s Lynn | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25:21 | 24 |
| 7 | Hednesford | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 8 | Morecambe | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21:12 | 23 |
| 9 | Chester | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17:14 | 23 |
| 10 | Bedford | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17:19 | 22 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:15 | 21 |
| 12 | Chorley | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Worksop | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20:21 | 20 |
| 14 | Hebburn Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:24 | 20 |
| 15 | Telford | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | 19 |
| 16 | Brackley | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18:26 | 19 |
| 17 | Harborough | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 18 | Marine | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17:19 | 16 |
| 19 | Merthyr Town | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18:22 | 16 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 19:27 | 16 |
| 21 | Scarborough Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 19:28 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:25 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:27 | 10 |
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