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Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League North
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Merthyr Town host Hebburn Town in the National League North. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Merthyr Town at 1.38 goals for, 1.55 against; Hebburn Town at 1.83 for, 1.62 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.13, favoring Hebburn Town. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Merthyr Town
35%
Draws
32%
Hebburn Town
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hebburn Town lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Merthyr Town taking it.
  • Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 20%
Hebburn Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Hebburn Town
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 42 / 100
Hebburn Town 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Hebburn Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Hebburn Town conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Merthyr Town remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Hebburn Town registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Hebburn Town
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
31 Oct
Radcliffe
3 : 3
Merthyr Town
27 Oct
Oxford City
3 : 0
Merthyr Town
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3
Morecambe
17 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 1
King’s Lynn
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1
Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6

Hebburn Town

(Away)
31 Oct
Hebburn Town
1 : 1
Harborough
24 Oct
Telford
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
17 Oct
Hebburn Town
0 : 2
Scarborough Athletic
10 Oct
Hebburn Town
0 : 3
Oxford City
26 Sept
Darlington FC
1 : 1
Hebburn Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Shields 14 9 2 3 25:19 29
2 Oxford City 14 8 3 3 26:11 27
3 Macclesfield 13 8 3 2 21:11 27
4 Hereford 14 8 2 4 24:11 26
5 Buxton 15 8 2 5 30:25 26
6 King’s Lynn 15 7 3 5 25:21 24
7 Hednesford 15 7 3 5 24:20 24
8 Morecambe 14 7 2 5 21:12 23
9 Chester 14 7 2 5 17:14 23
10 Bedford 14 7 1 6 17:19 22
11 Spalding United 14 6 3 5 19:15 21
12 Chorley 14 6 2 6 23:23 20
13 Worksop 15 6 2 7 20:21 20
14 Hebburn Town 14 5 5 4 19:24 20
15 Telford 15 5 4 6 16:21 19
16 Brackley 15 5 4 6 18:26 19
17 Harborough 14 4 5 5 13:17 17
18 Marine 14 5 1 8 17:19 16
19 Merthyr Town 15 3 7 5 18:22 16
20 Radcliffe 15 5 1 9 19:27 16
21 Scarborough Athletic 14 4 3 7 19:20 15
22 Darlington FC 15 3 2 10 19:28 11
23 Southport 14 2 4 8 14:25 10
24 Spennymoor 14 2 4 8 14:27 10
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)