Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Maddox J.
45'
45'
Maddox J.
AI Match Summary
Merthyr Town in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hednesford
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Hednesford lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 19%
Hednesford Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Hednesford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford
2:0
Apr 13, 2010 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford
1:2
Oct 10, 2009 Southern Premier League
Hednesford vs Merthyr Town
1:1
May 2, 2005 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford
1:2
Feb 12, 2005 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Maddox J.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Hednesford Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 36 / 100
Hednesford 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Hednesford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Hednesford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:5
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
Hednesford has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Hednesford
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
Page 1 of 4
Hednesford
(Away) 26 Sept
Hednesford
4 : 1 Radcliffe
19 Sept
Hednesford
0 : 1 Coventry United
12 Sept
Hebburn Town
2 : 1 Hednesford
08 Sept
King’s Lynn
2 : 3 Hednesford
05 Sept
Hednesford
0 : 1 South Shields
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Hebburn Town
2 : 1 Hednesford
08 Sept
King’s Lynn
2 : 3 Hednesford
31 Aug
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Hednesford
22 Aug
Telford
1 : 1 Hednesford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 8 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10:16 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 21 | Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9:20 | 6 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
