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Merthyr Town vs Morecambe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League North
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Lewis P.
57' Event
Jarvis C.
72' Event
O'Kane T.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Merthyr Town and Morecambe finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morecambe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Merthyr Town
30%
Draws
52%
Morecambe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Morecambe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Morecambe come out ahead of Merthyr Town on wins alone.
  • Morecambe are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 12%
Morecambe Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Morecambe
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 11
Draws 10 4
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 24, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Morecambe
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merthyr Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Jarvis C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Morecambe Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader O'Kane T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 10 / 100
Morecambe 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Morecambe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morecambe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Morecambe let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Morecambe
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
31 Oct
Radcliffe
3 : 3
Merthyr Town
27 Oct
Oxford City
3 : 0
Merthyr Town
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3
Morecambe
17 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 1
King’s Lynn
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1
Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6

Morecambe

(Away)
31 Oct
Morecambe
2 : 0
Scarborough Athletic
27 Oct
Morecambe
1 : 0
Darlington FC
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3
Morecambe
17 Oct
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
2 : 1
Morecambe
10 Oct
Worksop
2 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Shields 14 9 2 3 25:19 29
2 Oxford City 14 8 3 3 26:11 27
3 Macclesfield 13 8 3 2 21:11 27
4 Hereford 14 8 2 4 24:11 26
5 Buxton 15 8 2 5 30:25 26
6 King’s Lynn 15 7 3 5 25:21 24
7 Hednesford 15 7 3 5 24:20 24
8 Morecambe 14 7 2 5 21:12 23
9 Chester 14 7 2 5 17:14 23
10 Bedford 14 7 1 6 17:19 22
11 Spalding United 14 6 3 5 19:15 21
12 Chorley 14 6 2 6 23:23 20
13 Worksop 15 6 2 7 20:21 20
14 Hebburn Town 14 5 5 4 19:24 20
15 Telford 15 5 4 6 16:21 19
16 Brackley 15 5 4 6 18:26 19
17 Harborough 14 4 5 5 13:17 17
18 Marine 14 5 1 8 17:19 16
19 Merthyr Town 15 3 7 5 18:22 16
20 Radcliffe 15 5 1 9 19:27 16
21 Scarborough Athletic 14 4 3 7 19:20 15
22 Darlington FC 15 3 2 10 19:28 11
23 Southport 14 2 4 8 14:25 10
24 Spennymoor 14 2 4 8 14:27 10
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Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
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