Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor

England England

National League North 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Rai K.
48' Event
Cox C.
53' Event
Dolan M.

AI Match Summary

Spennymoor in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spennymoor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Merthyr Town
28%
Draws
22%
Spennymoor
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Merthyr Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Merthyr Town at 1.75 per game, Spennymoor at 1.13.
  • Model gives Merthyr Town a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 14%
Spennymoor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merthyr Town Spennymoor
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 National League North
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
6:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merthyr Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Rai K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cox C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Spennymoor Compare

Top Goalscorer Dolan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mondal J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merthyr Town 48 / 100
Spennymoor 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merthyr Town Spennymoor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 7.50 goals when they meet.

Spennymoor let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Merthyr Town has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Merthyr Town VS Spennymoor
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Merthyr Town

(Home)
21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2
Yeovil
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2
Cambrian United
25 Apr
Merthyr Town
2 : 4
AFC Fylde
Page 1 of 6

Spennymoor

(Away)
18 Jul
Spennymoor
1 : 2
Hartlepool
25 Apr
Spennymoor
1 : 1
Marine
18 Apr
Macclesfield
0 : 2
Spennymoor
11 Apr
Spennymoor
0 : 1
Worksop
06 Apr
Scarborough Athletic
1 : 0
Spennymoor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AFC Fylde4632410112:51100
2South Shields462811799:4395
3Kidderminster462512974:5187
4Macclesfield462471581:6879
5Buxton462271783:6173
6Scarborough Athletic4619161161:5273
7Chester4620131366:6473
8Merthyr Town462242095:8670
9Darlington FC462091778:6869
10Spennymoor4619111662:6968
11Telford4617141585:6565
12Marine461882062:7262
13Radcliffe461862276:8360
14Southport4616121864:7160
15Chorley4615121966:6557
16Worksop461692166:7457
17Oxford City4615112062:6756
18Bedford4613141966:7753
19King’s Lynn4612161856:6452
20Hereford4614102264:7952
21Curzon Ashton4613132067:8852
22Alfreton4612142049:8250
23Peterborough Sports461092751:9639
24Leamington46783141:9029
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)