Sport Picks
Match Events
7'
7'
Rai K.
48'
48'
Cox C.
53'
53'
Dolan M.
AI Match Summary
Spennymoor in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spennymoor.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Merthyr Town haven't matched Spennymoor's recent run of results.
- Model gives Merthyr Town a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Spennymoor have taken 3 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 20%
Spennymoor Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Spennymoor |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 National League North
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 National League North
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
6:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Rai K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Cox C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Spennymoor Compare
Top Goalscorer Dolan M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mondal J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 36 / 100
Spennymoor 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Spennymoor
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 6.00 goals.
Spennymoor has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.
Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Spennymoor
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
Page 1 of 4
Spennymoor
(Away) 19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Spennymoor
12 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Macclesfield
08 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 3 Spalding United
05 Sept
Hereford
2 : 1 Spennymoor
31 Aug
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Hednesford
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Spennymoor
05 Sept
Hereford
2 : 1 Spennymoor
29 Aug
Bedford
3 : 1 Spennymoor
18 Aug
Scarborough Athletic
3 : 0 Spennymoor
08 Aug
Morecambe
1 : 1 Spennymoor
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 112:51 | 100 |
| 2 | South Shields | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 99:43 | 95 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 74:51 | 87 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 46 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 81:68 | 79 |
| 5 | Buxton | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 83:61 | 73 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 61:52 | 73 |
| 7 | Chester | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 66:64 | 73 |
| 8 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 95:86 | 70 |
| 9 | Darlington FC | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 78:68 | 69 |
| 10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 62:69 | 68 |
| 11 | Telford | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 85:65 | 65 |
| 12 | Marine | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 62:72 | 62 |
| 13 | Radcliffe | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 76:83 | 60 |
| 14 | Southport | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 60 |
| 15 | Chorley | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 66:65 | 57 |
| 16 | Worksop | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 66:74 | 57 |
| 17 | Oxford City | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 62:67 | 56 |
| 18 | Bedford | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 66:77 | 53 |
| 19 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 56:64 | 52 |
| 20 | Hereford | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 64:79 | 52 |
| 21 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 67:88 | 52 |
| 22 | Alfreton | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49:82 | 50 |
| 23 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 51:96 | 39 |
| 24 | Leamington | 46 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 41:90 | 29 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
