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Merw vs Arkadag - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Merw and Arkadag finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arkadag.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Merw
15%
Draws
67%
Arkadag
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arkadag come out ahead of Merw on wins alone.
  • Model gives Arkadag a 67% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Arkadag have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Merw Clean Sheet 10%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merw Arkadag
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 5 32
Draws 4 0
Losses 20 2
Goals Scored 1.03 3.44
Goals Conceded 2.76 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Arkadag
0:5
Aug 6, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Merw
7:0
May 16, 2026 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Arkadag
0:7
Apr 5, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Merw
7:1
Nov 30, 2025 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Merw
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merw 10 / 100
Arkadag 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merw Arkadag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 6.40 goals as a typical output.

Merw found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Arkadag let in goals in 38% of their last 34 matches.

Merw went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merw VS Arkadag
0.75 Goals Scored 3.38
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Merw

(Home)
24 Sept
Merw
0 : 5
Arkadag
19 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Merw
12 Sept
Merw
2 : 2
Kopetdag Asgabat
30 Aug
Merw
3 : 2
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
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Arkadag

(Away)
03 Oct
Arkadag
5 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
24 Sept
Merw
0 : 5
Arkadag
20 Sept
Kopetdag Asgabat
0 : 1
Arkadag
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
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