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Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia Prediction & H2H Stats

Iran Iran

Azadegan League 2025/2026
Thu, Jul 16, 2026
3 - 0
04:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mes Kerman host Navad Urmia in the Azadegan League 2025/2026. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Mes Kerman at 0.72 goals for, 0.59 against; Navad Urmia at 0.47 for, 1.53 against. Head-to-head, Mes Kerman have won 2 to Navad Urmia's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Jul 16, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 0.44) point toward Mes Kerman. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Mes Kerman
20%
Draws
0%
Navad Urmia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mes Kerman

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mes Kerman come out ahead of Navad Urmia on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Mes Kerman taking it.
  • Regular Azadegan League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Mes Kerman Clean Sheet 68%
Navad Urmia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mes Kerman Navad Urmia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 3
Draws 15 10
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 0.72 0.47
Goals Conceded 0.59 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Azadegan League
Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia
3:0
Dec 26, 2025 Azadegan League
Navad Urmia vs Mes Kerman
1:1
Apr 26, 2021 Azadegan League
Navad Urmia vs Mes Kerman
0:0
Dec 16, 2020 Azadegan League
Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia
1:0
Jul 12, 2020 Azadegan League
Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mes Kerman 95 / 100
Navad Urmia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mes Kerman Navad Urmia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mes Kerman Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navad Urmia's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Navad Urmia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Mes Kerman remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Mes Kerman scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mes Kerman VS Navad Urmia
0.75 Goals Scored 0.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mes Kerman

(Home)
28 Sept
Kara Gostar Shabestar
1 : 1
Mes Kerman
22 Sept
Mes Kerman
0 : 1
Saipa
15 Sept
Fard
1 : 1
Mes Kerman
16 Jul
Mes Kerman
3 : 0
Navad Urmia
11 Jul
Sanat Naft
1 : 0
Mes Kerman
Page 1 of 6

Navad Urmia

(Away)
16 Jul
Mes Kerman
3 : 0
Navad Urmia
11 Jul
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Saipa
03 Jul
Navad Urmia
1 : 4
Sanat Naft
27 Jun
Pars Janoobi Jam
2 : 0
Navad Urmia
21 Jun
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Naft Bandar Abbas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 48:17 69
2 Mes Shahr Babak 34 19 11 4 41:14 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 37:21 60
4 Pars Janoobi Jam 34 16 12 6 44:22 60
5 Saipa 34 16 11 7 30:18 59
6 Havadar SC 34 11 17 6 32:23 50
7 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 26:19 47
8 Fard 34 10 16 8 24:15 46
9 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 23:18 45
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 19:18 43
11 Besat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 25:32 38
12 Kara Gostar Shabestar 34 9 10 15 17:34 37
13 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 28:31 36
14 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 23:36 35
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 25:41 35
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 18:29 30
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 16:48 24
18 Damash Gilan 34 2 13 19 16:56 19
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