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Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iran Iran

Azadegan League Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium, Tafresh
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Match Events

53' Event
Heydarieh V.

AI Match Summary

The Azadegan League game between Mes Rafsanjan and Ario Eslamshahr finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mes Rafsanjan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Mes Rafsanjan
20%
Draws
42%
Ario Eslamshahr
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ario Eslamshahr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Mes Rafsanjan haven't matched Ario Eslamshahr's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mes Rafsanjan's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Azadegan League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59.4%
Mes Rafsanjan Clean Sheet 20%
Ario Eslamshahr Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mes Rafsanjan Ario Eslamshahr
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 7 11
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.54 0.66
Goals Conceded 1.08 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.35 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Azadegan League
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mes Rafsanjan Compare

Top Goalscorer Heydarieh V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.27
Avg xA / game 0.17

Ario Eslamshahr Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mes Rafsanjan 36 / 100
Ario Eslamshahr 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mes Rafsanjan Ario Eslamshahr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mes Rafsanjan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Mes Rafsanjan's goal record stands at 38% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Ario Eslamshahr's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Mes Rafsanjan VS Ario Eslamshahr
0.33 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
17% Over 1.5 38%
17% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mes Rafsanjan

(Home)
05 Oct
Mes Rafsanjan
1 : 0
Ario Eslamshahr
29 Sept
Mes Rafsanjan
1 : 0
Besat Kermanshah
22 Sept
Kara Gostar Shabestar
0 : 0
Mes Rafsanjan
16 Sept
Mes Rafsanjan
0 : 0
Havadar SC
22 Jul
Mes Rafsanjan
0 : 3
Sanat Naft
Page 1 of 6

Ario Eslamshahr

(Away)
05 Oct
Mes Rafsanjan
1 : 0
Ario Eslamshahr
28 Sept
Ario Eslamshahr
2 : 0
Havadar SC
22 Sept
Naft Gachsaran
0 : 1
Ario Eslamshahr
16 Sept
Ario Eslamshahr
0 : 3
Naft Masjed-Soleyman
17 Jul
Mazandaran
1 : 2
Ario Eslamshahr
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saipa 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Fard 5 2 2 1 5:2 8
3 Pars Janoobi Jam 4 2 2 0 4:2 8
4 Mes Rafsanjan 4 2 2 0 2:0 8
5 Besat Kermanshah 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
6 Naft Masjed-Soleyman 5 2 1 2 7:5 7
7 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 4 1 3 0 3:2 6
8 Shahin Bandar Ameri 5 1 3 1 5:6 6
9 Ario Eslamshahr 4 2 0 2 3:4 6
10 Naft Bandar Abbas 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
11 Niroye Zamini 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
12 Foolad Novin Ahvaz 5 0 4 1 6:7 4
13 Mes Kerman 4 0 3 1 2:3 3
14 Naft Gachsaran 4 0 3 1 1:2 3
15 Kara Gostar Shabestar 4 0 2 2 1:4 2
16 Havadar SC 4 0 1 3 0:6 1
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