Sport Picks

Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Agrano Vachadze Stadium, Ambrolauri

Samgurali

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Meshakhte Tkibuli host Samgurali in the Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Meshakhte Tkibuli at 1 goals for, 2.75 against; Samgurali at 1.5 for, 1.75 against. Past meetings favor Samgurali slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 6, 2026, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 2.13, favoring Samgurali. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Meshakhte Tkibuli

39%

Draws

30%

Samgurali

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Samgurali lately — more wins on the board than Meshakhte Tkibuli.
39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Samgurali have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%

Meshakhte Tkibuli Clean Sheet 10%

Samgurali Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Meshakhte Tkibuli	Samgurali
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	6	13
Draws	10	7
Losses	13	10
Goals Scored	1	1.5
Goals Conceded	2.75	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.75	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga

Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli

3:1

Mar 8, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga

Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali

0:0

Nov 11, 2019 Liga 3

Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali

1:2

Sep 15, 2019 Liga 3

Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli

5:1

Jun 12, 2019 Liga 3

Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali

0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Meshakhte Tkibuli 30 / 100

Samgurali 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Meshakhte Tkibuli Samgurali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Meshakhte Tkibuli found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Samgurali let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Meshakhte Tkibuli has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Meshakhte Tkibuli VS Samgurali

1 Goals Scored 1.5

2.75 Goals Conceded 1.75

88% Over 1.5 63%

75% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History