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Mestre vs Caravaggio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Bangal F.

AI Match Summary

Mestre in this Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mestre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Mestre
30%
Draws
29%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mestre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Mestre have won more games recently than Caravaggio.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Mestre taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Mestre Clean Sheet 68%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mestre Caravaggio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 0.93 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Caravaggio
1:0
Sep 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Caravaggio vs Mestre
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mestre Compare

Top Goalscorer Bangal F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Caravaggio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mestre 86 / 100
Caravaggio 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mestre Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mestre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caravaggio let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Mestre scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mestre remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mestre VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mestre

(Home)
12 Sept
Mestre
1 : 1
Luparense FC
06 Sept
Calvi Noale
0 : 2
Mestre
17 May
Legnago Salus
2 : 0
Mestre
03 May
Mestre
1 : 0
Treviso
26 Apr
Altavilla
1 : 0
Mestre
Page 1 of 6

Caravaggio

(Away)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 23 9 6 65:39 78
2 Treviso 38 22 8 8 59:32 74
3 Villa Valle 38 19 10 9 62:44 67
4 Adriese 38 18 12 8 55:31 66
5 Mestre 38 19 7 12 40:34 64
6 Campodarsego 38 15 17 6 52:36 62
7 Brusaporto 38 16 12 10 46:37 60
8 Luparense FC 38 13 17 8 48:36 56
9 Real Calepina 38 15 10 13 44:44 55
10 Cjarlins Muzane 38 15 10 13 50:49 55
11 Este 38 14 12 12 50:50 54
12 Brian Lignano 38 12 12 14 45:49 48
13 Calvi Noale 38 12 11 15 44:44 47
14 Bassano Virtus 38 11 14 13 43:36 47
15 Portogruaro 38 10 16 12 32:36 46
16 Caravaggio 38 11 8 19 42:54 41
17 Ciserano-Bergamo 38 9 13 16 42:55 40
18 Chions 38 6 12 20 35:59 30
19 Montecchio Maggiore 38 6 9 23 32:55 27
20 Lavis 38 3 3 32 25:91 12
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Out)