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Stadium Background

Metz vs Pau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 2 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
1 - 3
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Fall C.
Assist: Benet J.
18' Event
Benet J.
Penalty Missed
45'
Devenish C.

AI Match Summary

Pau in this Ligue 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Metz
20%
Draws
60%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Pau have won more games recently than Metz.
  • Pau are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Metz Clean Sheet 14%
Pau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metz Pau
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 11 4
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.65 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 30, 2026 Ligue 2
Metz vs Pau
1:3
Apr 26, 2025 Ligue 2
Pau vs Metz
2:1
Jan 4, 2025 Ligue 2
Metz vs Pau
0:0
Apr 8, 2023 Ligue 2
Pau vs Metz
1:1
Oct 1, 2022 Ligue 2
Metz vs Pau
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Fall C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Benali H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metz 11 / 100
Pau 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metz Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Metz scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Pau conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Metz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Metz VS Pau
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Metz

(Home)
30 Oct
Metz
1 : 3
Pau
23 Oct
Dunkerque
1 : 1
Metz
17 Oct
Metz
3 : 2
Sochaux
12 Oct
Dijon
4 : 2
Metz
19 Sept
Metz
2 : 2
St Etienne
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Pau

(Away)
30 Oct
Metz
1 : 3
Pau
23 Oct
Pau
2 : 1
Grenoble
16 Oct
Guingamp
1 : 2
Pau
09 Oct
Pau
3 : 2
Laval
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Etienne 11 8 1 2 23:11 25
2 Montpellier 11 7 3 1 16:6 24
3 Nancy 11 7 1 3 16:9 22
4 Reims 11 5 6 0 22:12 21
5 Pau 11 6 2 3 16:11 20
6 Red Star 11 5 2 4 14:16 17
7 Annecy 11 5 1 5 14:15 16
8 Dijon 11 4 3 4 20:19 15
9 Guingamp 11 4 2 5 16:15 14
10 Metz 11 3 5 3 17:17 14
11 Rodez 11 4 1 6 17:22 13
12 Dunkerque 11 3 3 5 14:17 12
13 Sochaux 11 2 5 4 8:14 11
14 Boulogne 11 1 7 3 7:8 10
15 Nantes 11 2 3 6 12:18 9
16 Laval 11 2 3 6 14:21 9
17 Clermont 11 0 8 3 10:15 8
18 Grenoble 11 2 2 7 10:20 8
Promotion - Ligue 1 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)