Sport Picks
Mexico vs Union Adarve - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 7 
Match Events
5'
5'
Ortueta I.
12'
12'
Sarmiento D.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 game between Mexico and Union Adarve finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Adarve
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
26%
/ Low Confidence
- Mexico haven't matched Union Adarve's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Union Adarve Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mexico | Union Adarve |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Union Adarve
1:1
Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Union Adarve
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Union Adarve vs Mexico
2:2
Feb 12, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Union Adarve vs Mexico
1:0
Sep 25, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Union Adarve
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Sarmiento D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Union Adarve Compare
Top Goalscorer Ortueta I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mexico 41 / 100
Union Adarve 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mexico Union Adarve
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Mexico scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Union Adarve let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Mexico went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mexico VS Union Adarve
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Mexico
(Home) 11 Oct
Pozuelo de Alarcon
4 : 3 Mexico
03 Oct
Mexico
1 : 0 CP Parla Escuela
27 Sept
Siello
3 : 2 Mexico
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1 Union Adarve
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0 Mexico
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Mexico
1 : 0 CP Parla Escuela
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1 Union Adarve
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0 CF Fuenlabrada
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2 Trival Valderas
18 Apr
Mexico
2 : 2 Parla
Page 1 of 3
Union Adarve
(Away) 11 Oct
Union Adarve
2 : 1 CD Mostoles
04 Oct
AD Torrejon
4 : 0 Union Adarve
27 Sept
Union Adarve
2 : 2 CF Fuenlabrada
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1 Union Adarve
13 Sept
Union Adarve
1 : 1 Colonia Moscardo
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
AD Torrejon
4 : 0 Union Adarve
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1 Union Adarve
06 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes B
0 : 2 Union Adarve
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0 Union Adarve
03 May
CD Las Rozas
0 : 2 Union Adarve
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Las Rozas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15:6 | 12 |
| 3 | Cala Pozuelo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 12 |
| 4 | Galapagar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 5 | Trival Valderas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 6 | CD Mostoles | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 7 | CF Fuenlabrada | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | 9 |
| 8 | Union Adarve | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 9 | Pozuelo de Alarcon | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 9 |
| 10 | RC Alcobendas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Leganes B | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:9 | 7 |
| 12 | AD Torrejon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 13 | CP Parla Escuela | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 6 |
| 14 | Mexico | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:13 | 4 |
| 17 | Siello | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:14 | 4 |
| 18 | San Sebastian Reyes B | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:17 | 3 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 (Play Offs)
