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Mezzolara vs Corticella Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Dominici L.
52' Event
Alessandrini S.

AI Match Summary

Mezzolara in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mezzolara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mezzolara
35%
Draws
26%
Corticella
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mezzolara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Corticella have won more games recently than Mezzolara.
  • Mezzolara are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Mezzolara Clean Sheet 68%
Corticella Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mezzolara Corticella
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 3 13
Draws 10 6
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 0.67 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Corticella
2:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Mezzolara
2:1
Jan 29, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Corticella
2:2
Sep 27, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Mezzolara
1:2
Jun 19, 2021 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Corticella
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mezzolara Compare

Top Goalscorer Dominici L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alessandrini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mezzolara 95 / 100
Corticella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mezzolara Corticella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mezzolara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Corticella conceded in 81% of 37 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Mezzolara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Corticella has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mezzolara VS Corticella
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
33% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mezzolara

(Home)
27 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Grassina
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Mezzolara
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1
Ternana
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Rondinella
Page 1 of 6

Corticella

(Away)
18 May
Corticella
0 : 2
Sammaurese
11 May
Corticella
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
27 Apr
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Corticella
17 Apr
Corticella
0 : 3
Prato
13 Apr
Tuttocuoio
1 : 1
Corticella
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)