Sport Picks

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Mezzolara vs SCD Progresso

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Alessandrini S.
72' Event
Iacovoni F.
90' Event
Cancello R.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between Mezzolara and SCD Progresso finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SCD Progresso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mezzolara
20%
Draws
57%
SCD Progresso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SCD Progresso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SCD Progresso come out ahead of Mezzolara on wins alone.
  • SCD Progresso are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Mezzolara Clean Sheet 20%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mezzolara SCD Progresso
Matches Played 28 40
Wins 2 17
Draws 8 8
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 0.64 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs SCD Progresso
1:2
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
2:2
Feb 2, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs SCD Progresso
1:0
Sep 26, 2021 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
0:1
Apr 21, 2021 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mezzolara Compare

Top Goalscorer Alessandrini S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Iacovoni F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cancello R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mezzolara 12 / 100
SCD Progresso 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mezzolara SCD Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Progresso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SCD Progresso conceded in 73% of 40 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Mezzolara's goal record stands at 39% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Mezzolara has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mezzolara VS SCD Progresso
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mezzolara

(Home)
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Rondinella
05 May
Mezzolara
1 : 2
SCD Progresso
28 Apr
Forli FC
2 : 0
Mezzolara
21 Apr
Mezzolara
3 : 1
Sammaurese
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SCD Progresso

(Away)
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
26 Apr
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
SCD Progresso
19 Apr
Lentigione
1 : 2
SCD Progresso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)