Sport Picks
Match Events
43'
43'
Diamanka C.
52'
52'
Leo Fernandes
83'
83'
Emmanuel P.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Mosta FC haven't matched Mgarr's recent run of results.
- Mgarr are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Mgarr have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Mosta FC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Mgarr Clean Sheet 13%
Mosta FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mgarr | Mosta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.65 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.55 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.78 | 1.67 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 28, 2026 FA Trophy
Mgarr vs Mosta FC
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mgarr Compare
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.89
Mosta FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Diamanka C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Leo Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.93
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mgarr 57 / 100
Mosta FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mgarr Mosta FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MGA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Mgarr scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.
Mosta FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Mgarr has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Mgarr VS Mosta FC
1.43 Goals Scored 1.63
1.71 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 88%
29% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Mgarr
(Home) 18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2 Mgarr
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2 Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1 Santa Lucia
15 Mar
Mgarr
1 : 1 Vittoriosa
08 Mar
Zebbug
0 : 2 Mgarr
Page 1 of 7
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2 Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1 Santa Lucia
15 Mar
Mgarr
1 : 1 Vittoriosa
04 Mar
Mgarr
2 : 3 Melita
21 Feb
Mgarr
5 : 0 Mtarfa
Page 1 of 4
Mosta FC
(Away) 31 Jul
Mosta FC
0 : 2 Balzan FC
24 Jul
Gzira
1 : 1 Mosta FC
17 Jul
Mosta FC
0 : 4 Birzebbuga
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1 Mosta FC
30 Apr
Birkirkara
1 : 1 Mosta FC
Page 1 of 6
24 Jul
Gzira
1 : 1 Mosta FC
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1 Mosta FC
30 Apr
Birkirkara
1 : 1 Mosta FC
24 Apr
Hibernians
2 : 0 Mosta FC
11 Apr
Tarxien
2 : 2 Mosta FC
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Tarxien -
TBD -
TBD -
Ghajnsielem -
Pembroke -
TBD -
TBD -
Valletta -
Hamrun -
TBD -
Victoria Hotspurs 3
Xaghra 1
Fgura -
TBD -
Sirens 1
Santa Lucia 2
Birkirkara -
TBD -
TBD -
Victoria Wanderers -
Pieta -
TBD -
TBD -
Mtarfa -
Floriana -
TBD -
TBD -
Marsaxlokk -
Zabbar -
TBD -
Melita 0
Xewkija 1
St. Andrews 3
Vittoriosa 0
TBD -
Gzira -
Hibernians -
TBD -
TBD -
Gudja -
Zebbug 0
Qala Saints 5
TBD -
Mgarr -
Mosta FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Mqabba FC -
Zurrieq -
TBD -
TBD -
Kercem Ajax -
Qormi 1
Balzan FC 4
Nadur 1
Birzebbuga 4
Sliema -
TBD -
TBD -
Swieqi -
Marsa -
TBD -
TBD -
Naxxar Lions -
1/16-finals
Tarxien 4
Ghajnsielem 0
Pembroke 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Victoria Hotspurs 0
Fgura 2
Santa Lucia 1
Birkirkara 3
Victoria Wanderers 1
Pieta 5
Mtarfa 0
Floriana 1
Marsaxlokk 0
Zabbar 1
Xewkija 0
St. Andrews 0
Gzira 2
Hibernians 3
Gudja 1
Qala Saints 0
Mgarr 2
Mosta FC 2
Mqabba FC 1
Zurrieq 4
Kercem Ajax 0
Balzan FC 1
Birzebbuga 2
Sliema 1
Swieqi 2
Marsa 0
Naxxar Lions 3
1/8-finals
Tarxien 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Fgura 0
Birkirkara 2
Pieta 0
Floriana 0
Zabbar 1
Gzira 3
Hibernians 2
Mgarr 0
Mosta FC 3
Zurrieq 3
Birzebbuga 0
Swieqi 2
Naxxar Lions 4
Quarter-finals
Valletta 3
Hamrun 1
Birkirkara 2
Zabbar 1
Gzira 2
Mosta FC 1
Zurrieq 1
Naxxar Lions 2
Semi-finals
Valletta 3
Birkirkara 1
Gzira 2
Naxxar Lions 1
Final
Valletta 2
Gzira 1
