Sport Picks
Match Events
43'
43'
Diamanka C.
52'
52'
Leo Fernandes
83'
83'
Emmanuel P.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mosta FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mosta FC haven't matched Mgarr's recent run of results.
- Mosta FC are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Mgarr have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Mosta FC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Mgarr Clean Sheet 13%
Mosta FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mgarr | Mosta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.67 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 28, 2026 FA Trophy
Mgarr vs Mosta FC
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mgarr Compare
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Mosta FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Diamanka C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Leo Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.93
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mgarr 19 / 100
Mosta FC 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mgarr Mosta FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mosta FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Mgarr scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Mosta FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Mgarr has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Mgarr VS Mosta FC
1.2 Goals Scored 1.13
2.2 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
60% Over 2.5 50%
40% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Mgarr
(Home) 19 Sept
Melita
1 : 2 Mgarr
13 Sept
Mgarr
1 : 3 Tarxien
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2 Mgarr
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2 Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1 Santa Lucia
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Mgarr
1 : 3 Tarxien
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2 Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1 Santa Lucia
15 Mar
Mgarr
1 : 1 Vittoriosa
04 Mar
Mgarr
2 : 3 Melita
Page 1 of 4
Mosta FC
(Away) 13 Sept
Mosta FC
1 : 3 Sliema
05 Sept
Marsaxlokk
1 : 1 Mosta FC
30 Aug
Mosta FC
1 : 0 Birkirkara
23 Aug
Mosta FC
2 : 1 Balzan FC
17 Aug
Hamrun
0 : 2 Mosta FC
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Marsaxlokk
1 : 1 Mosta FC
17 Aug
Hamrun
0 : 2 Mosta FC
24 Jul
Gzira
1 : 1 Mosta FC
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1 Mosta FC
30 Apr
Birkirkara
1 : 1 Mosta FC
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Tarxien -
TBD -
TBD -
Ghajnsielem -
Pembroke -
TBD -
TBD -
Valletta -
Hamrun -
TBD -
Victoria Hotspurs 3
Xaghra 1
Fgura -
TBD -
Sirens 1
Santa Lucia 2
Birkirkara -
TBD -
TBD -
Victoria Wanderers -
Pieta -
TBD -
TBD -
Mtarfa -
Floriana -
TBD -
TBD -
Marsaxlokk -
Zabbar -
TBD -
Melita 0
Xewkija 1
St. Andrews 3
Vittoriosa 0
TBD -
Gzira -
Hibernians -
TBD -
TBD -
Gudja -
Zebbug 0
Qala Saints 5
TBD -
Mgarr -
Mosta FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Mqabba FC -
Zurrieq -
TBD -
TBD -
Kercem Ajax -
Qormi 1
Balzan FC 4
Nadur 1
Birzebbuga 4
Sliema -
TBD -
TBD -
Swieqi -
Marsa -
TBD -
TBD -
Naxxar Lions -
1/16-finals
Tarxien 4
Ghajnsielem 0
Pembroke 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Victoria Hotspurs 0
Fgura 2
Santa Lucia 1
Birkirkara 3
Victoria Wanderers 1
Pieta 5
Mtarfa 0
Floriana 1
Marsaxlokk 0
Zabbar 1
Xewkija 0
St. Andrews 0
Gzira 2
Hibernians 3
Gudja 1
Qala Saints 0
Mgarr 2
Mosta FC 2
Mqabba FC 1
Zurrieq 4
Kercem Ajax 0
Balzan FC 1
Birzebbuga 2
Sliema 1
Swieqi 2
Marsa 0
Naxxar Lions 3
1/8-finals
Tarxien 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Fgura 0
Birkirkara 2
Pieta 0
Floriana 0
Zabbar 1
Gzira 3
Hibernians 2
Mgarr 0
Mosta FC 3
Zurrieq 3
Birzebbuga 0
Swieqi 2
Naxxar Lions 4
Quarter-finals
Valletta 3
Hamrun 1
Birkirkara 2
Zabbar 1
Gzira 2
Mosta FC 1
Zurrieq 1
Naxxar Lions 2
Semi-finals
Valletta 3
Birkirkara 1
Gzira 2
Naxxar Lions 1
Final
Valletta 2
Gzira 1
